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Shum said that Chinese purchases of Iranian oil could increase substantially in coming months, particularly if Iran offers Beijing a discount on its oil sales. "China wants to build its strategic reserve of crude and the Chinese are now in a good negotiating position as far as securing supplies," he said. The reserve, which presently stands at 102 million barrels -- 21 days of imports
-- is scheduled to add another 168 million barrels of storage facilities by early 2013. In a report earlier this month, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said that new Chinese storage centers "could materially affect Chinese crude oil demand in 2012," suggesting that if they were filled at a steady pace China would need to secure an additional 220,000 barrels per day. That does not take into account any additional accretion for economic growth or from falling domestic production. Shum said it was still unclear how much of the increment China might try to source from Iran, particularly in light of the strong U.S. objections. "There will be a bit of a political element to any decision," he said. India, China's competitor in the Asian high growth sweepstakes, ramped up its purchases of Iranian crude to 550,000 barrels per day in January, largely on the back of additional supply availability stemming from the cutback in Chinese acquisitions. In 2011 it averaged around 340,000 barrels per day in Iranian oil purchases, accounting for some 12 per cent of its imports. While it is uncertain whether the country can sustain the January level over the long term, a booming economy will keep overall oil imports high. And with many Indian refineries designed specifically to process Iranian crude, it seems likely that it will continue to source a major portion of its oil from Iran, notwithstanding objections from the United States. Still, the impact of the American sanctions -- and parallel pressure from the European Union
-- is now being felt. Indian oil payments to Iran, initially channeled through German-based Europaisch-Iranische Handelsbank, were moved to Turkey's Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS after EU intervention, though that channel may prove short lived in the face of the increasing heat from U.S. authorities. To cope with the new sanctions, the Iranian ambassador to India announced last week that India and Iran have reached a deal allowing Indian oil companies to pay for 45 percent of their imports in Indian rupees, reducing the need for dollar-handling foreign banks as facilitators. Some reports -- unconfirmed by Indian authorities -- have also suggested that India may consider a barter arrangement in lieu of oil payments, including exports of wheat and other grain as shortages of food commodities begin to bite in Tehran. In contrast to the generally ineffective American efforts in Asia, the pending EU embargo of Iranian imports
-- about 450,000 barrels per day in 2011 -- could have an impact when it goes into effect in July. According to Shum, this reflects a combination of slower European growth prospects and the ability of recently reinstated Libyan oil production to make up for large parts of any Iranian shortfall.
But with China and India undeterred by the American stance on Iranian oil, part of the European off-take might simply be transferred eastward.
[Associated
Press;
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