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Obama's drop in popularity over his health care law, stimulus package and clean-air initiatives despised by Virginia's coal industry have made the link to the president tougher for Kaine. "Everyone has a fantasy," said Virginia-based Republican strategist Christopher J. LaCivita. "Tim Kaine's fantasy is not to be associated with Barack Obama." Tying Kaine to Obama is a good Republican strategy unless Romney flops in Virginia, said Steve Jarding of Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. Polling by Quinnipiac University in early June showed Obama with a 5 percentage point lead over Romney in Virginia and Kaine and Allen deadlocked. "If Obama loses big, there's probably no way Kaine can win, and vice versa
-- if Obama wins big, there's probably no way George Allen can win," said Jarding, a Democratic consultant. Kaine's -- and Obama's -- hopes hinge largely on big turnouts by women and minorities. One-fifth of Virginia's electorate is black, and among that group, 9 out of 10 voted for Obama in 2008. Democrats hold an advantage among female voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of Virginia in June. Obama led Romney by 16 percentage points among women, and Kaine led Allen by 6 points.
[Associated
Press;
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