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Carson notes that housing and autos were the primary sources of growth in the second quarter. Both have benefited from the Federal Reserve's low interest-rate policies. Those sectors usually rebound early in recoveries. But after the Great Recession ended in June 2009, they were held back by tight credit and cash-strapped consumers. "It's almost like a traditional recovery is just starting, even though we're in the fifth year," Carson said. Federal Reserve officials have forecast better growth in the second half of the year. And Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that the central bank could begin to scale back its bond purchases later this year if the economy strengthens. But Fed officials typically put greater weight on employment and inflation data than the GDP figures. The Fed concludes a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, at which point it could clarify its interest-rate policies. Most economists blame tax increases and government spending cuts for the sluggish second quarter. Higher taxes slowed consumer spending. And government cuts subtracted nearly a full percentage point from growth at the start of the year. Even so, the solid pace of hiring suggests the economy is doing better than the growth figures show. Tax receipts have been stronger. Faster growth in the second half of the year would help close those gaps. The government is also expected to release comprehensive revisions on Wednesday. Roughly every five years, the department incorporates more recent data and adjusts how it calculates GDP. The revisions will likely show growth was faster in the first quarter and last year than previously estimated, economist say. Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, estimates the revisions could add up to a half-point to last year's 2.2 percent growth rate. The revisions will also alter GDP data all the way back to 1929. In one major change, the government plans to count spending on research and development as investment, rather than as a regular cost of doing business. That, along with other changes, will boost the level of GDP in 2007 by about 3 percent, or $450 billion. It isn't likely to significantly change the pace of growth in recent years.
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