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 She was quick to embrace the step this week when President Barack
Obama, a fellow Democrat no longer having to face an electorate,
relaxed U.S. policy toward Cuba.
While assailed by Republicans opposed to restoring ties with the
communist-led island, the action has the power to solidify support
for Democrats among increasingly influential Latino voters and
appeal to voters in farm states like Iowa eager to do business in
Havana.
Obama's unilateral move has gently shaken up the 2016 race to
succeed him, exposing divisions among Republicans and possibly
helping Democrats already buoyed by his decision to liberalize
immigration policy.
Potential contenders Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio adhered to the
traditional Republican hard line on Cuba and sharply criticized
Obama. But Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who has a libertarian streak,
backed the new policy.
A likely White House candidate, Paul told a West Virginia radio
station that the 50-year-old embargo with Cuba "just hasn't worked."
Clinton, Obama's former secretary of state, also had asserted the
previous policy was not working. In her memoir, "Hard Choices," she
wrote that she urged Obama to shift. She welcomed the change in a
statement on Wednesday.
Democrats argue that Clinton's embrace of Obama on Cuba could help
her with Latino voters, especially younger ones in the key state of
Florida, who are less inclined than their elders to be virulently
opposed to the Cuban government.
Of America’s 1.5-million-strong Cuban-American population, about 80
percent live in Florida.
"I think it'll help her with the younger folks," Democratic
strategist Bud Jackson said of Clinton.
Latinos already like what they see in Clinton.
A Telemundo/NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found on Thursday that
61 percent of Latinos see themselves supporting Clinton in 2016, 11
points more than the general population.
MORE OF A PLUS
The Cuba shift could also prove popular among those dependent on
America's agricultural businesses, major hotels and even sports fans
who enjoy watching the best Cuban players make it to Major League
Baseball.
"The political calculation has to be that this is more of a plus for
a candidate for president than a minus," said David Yepsen, director
of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois
University.
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A Reuters/Ipsos poll of more than 31,000 adults between July and
October showed Americans largely open to forging diplomatic
relations with Cuba. About one-fifth opposed such a move, while 43
percent backed it and around 37 percent were unsure. But there are
potential pitfalls for Clinton. She will need to stake out some
positions of her own or risk criticism that she simply represents
the third term of a president who is saddled with a 40 percent
approval rating.
In their 2008 battle for the Democratic presidential nomination that
Obama won, Clinton accused him of being "naive" for offering to meet
leaders of such renegade nations as Cuba without conditions.
Since flirting with a presidential race, Clinton for the most part
has chosen not to separate herself from Obama other than to question
his decision not to arm Syrian rebels, as her memoir reveals.
Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution scholar who advised Republican
Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential bid, said if Clinton is "trying to
draw some distance from the president's foreign policy in some ways,
it was not useful to have something where she's perfectly aligned
with him."
There are also risks for Jeb Bush, a former Florida governor, and
Rubio, a Florida senator. In their criticisms of Obama's policy, the
two Republicans are aligning themselves with their party's
conservative base but their views could appear outdated to moderate
voters.
"I think it's kind of a blind cul-de-sac for people like Rubio and
Bush to get pushed into," said Democratic strategist Bob Shrum, who
was Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry's campaign manager in
2004. "It reflects a Florida that doesn't exist anymore."
(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle; Editing by Caren Bohan
and Howard Goller)
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