Rangel, who at 84 is among the longest-serving and best-known
lawmakers in Congress, faces an aggressive challenge in the
Democratic primary from state Senator Adriano Espaillat, who
came within 1,000 votes of ousting him two years ago after the
district boundaries were redrawn.
A Siena College poll released last week found Rangel leading
Espaillat 47 percent to 34 percent among likely voters in the
district. But primary results can be difficult to predict
because much depends on turnout.
"In a low-turn out race, ground game really matters," Steven
Greenberg, the Siena pollster, said, adding that two years ago
just 15 percent of enrolled Democrats voted in the primary.
"It's the last Tuesday in June, it's the last week of school,
it's the week before July 4," he said.
In this liberal bastion of New York City, the winner of the
Democratic primary on Tuesday is all but guaranteed to win the
general election in November.
While Rangel, who was censured by the House in 2010 after an
ethics scandal, boasts a long list of endorsements - including
former President Bill Clinton; New York's U.S. senators, Charles
Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand; and Governor Andrew Cuomo - the
major local newspapers have been split.
The New York Times threw its support behind Espaillat, saying it
is time for Rangel, who entered Congress in 1971, to "yield to
the next generation," while the New York Daily News endorsed
Rangel, whom the paper called a "master legislator" deserving of
a "last hurrah."
According to the Siena poll, voters are divided along racial
lines. Rangel, who is black, holds a 70-point advantage among
blacks while Espaillat, who grew up in the Dominican Republic,
holds a 24-point advantage among Latinos. White voters in the
district favor Rangel 43 percent to 38 percent.
(Reporting by Edith Honan; Editing by Eric Beech)
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