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 As Washington prepares to stopper the supply of cheap money that
has been helping it revive the United States, the euro has started
to fall steeply against the dollar.
And that's just how the ECB likes it.
With prices in Europe rising at their slowest in five years and its
economy stubbornly dormant, Frankfurt is starting to use similar
tactics to those used by the Federal Reserve - pumping cheap money
into the system in the hope of awakening it.
But those efforts have at best an uncertain outcome. Now, however,
the divergence of approach on either side of the Atlantic has
presented the euro zone with an alternative that works - a weaker
currency.
"The one sure-fire way to get things moving is to get the exchange
rate down," said RBS economist Richard Barwell. "It's the best
antidote to disinflation known to man."
A falling euro <EUR=> would drive up prices by making goods from
abroad, whether cars or clothes, more expensive. It would also boost
exports, cutting slack as companies work harder to meet demand. That
in turn could bring a rise in inflation toward the ECB's target of
just under 2 percent - one of the building blocks for economic
prosperity.
Last month, euro zone inflation slowed to just 0.3 percent.
ECB President Mario Draghi has been at pains to stress that the
central bank does not have an exchange rate target - eager to avoid
antagonizing the United States and other big economies with
'beggar-thy-neighbor' tactics.
But last week Draghi dropped a hint that Europe's different position
could be beneficial, noting "significant and increasing differences
in the monetary policy cycle between major advanced economies."
For financial markets, this amounted to tacit encouragement to push
down the euro, already trading close to 2-year lows.
'ALTERNATIVE PATH'
Britain provides useful clues as to what might happen next.
A sharp drop in sterling's <GBP=> exchange rate against the dollar
just before the financial crisis set in - from above $2.00 in
mid-2008 to around $1.35 in early 2009 - fed through quickly.
Consumer prices bounced from 1.1 percent in September 2009 to 5.2
percent two years' later - in large part due to the currency effect.
That evidence makes many officials in Kaiserstrasse, the Frankfurt
address of the ECB, quietly optimistic, given the currency has
dropped from nearly $1.40 in May to around $1.26 now.
Last month, the ECB published a report exploring "an alternative
path for the euro" - a fall in its value to $1.24 by 2016 that is
well on the way to becoming reality.
That would increase the euro zone's 8.5 trillion euro economy by up
to 0.3 percent next year and in 2016, and in turn lift the bloc's
price inflation, the ECB's primary benchmark of health, by up to 0.3
percent - doubling the current rate.
Some predict an even steeper drop, and implicitly, a greater boost
to the economy. Deutsche Bank forecasts that one euro could be worth
less than a dollar by late 2017.
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SHORT RELIEF
However some economists believe any impact in Europe would be
short-lived and that, just as in the case of Britain, further
measures would be needed before a genuine recovery is possible.
"The depreciation of the euro is necessary. But it is not
sufficient," says Paul De Grauwe, an economist with the London
School of Economics. "We need to do other things, such as start
country investment."
And while the weakening euro will help exporters selling around the
globe, it will do little for trade between the 18 countries in the
bloc.
"You need internal demand to grow and you have a serious limitation
there," said Santiago Carbo-Valverde, a Spanish economist at
Britain's Bangor University.
"You can sell to China but you need the euro zone."
Proof: after Britain's currency tumbled, it discovered more was
required to kick-start an economy. London used a
funding-for-lending scheme to spur mortgage loans and property
prices - but directing one island economy is easier than forging
change across the uneasy alliance of 18 countries in the euro zone,
a mix of cultures and languages where views on saving and spending
contrast sharply from Berlin to Athens.
On its own, the ECB has little hope of arresting decline. Draghi has urged governments to reform their economies by paring
back taxes or making labor rules more flexible, but his appeals have
fallen largely on deaf ears: France recently issued a defiant budget
plan that will flout European Union spending limits.
Ultimately, then, even a falling euro may not be enough to lift
pressure on the ECB to embrace full-blown quantitative easing by
buying government bonds.
"The falling euro would help but if you step back, currency value
change is a zero sum game," said Hung Tran, executive managing
director of the Institute of International Finance, a group
representing banks and financial groups.
"One currency's gain is another currency's loss. It doesn't change
the picture of the global economy and one of low growth for Europe."
(Editing by Sophie Walker)
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