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 Nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 last month after an upwardly
revised jump of 353,000 in November, the Labor Department said on
Friday. The jobless rate fell 0.2 percentage point to a 6-1/2-year
low of 5.6 percent, but that was mainly because people left the
labor force.
The drop in labor participation and a surprise five-cent, or 0.2
percent, decrease in average hourly earnings, which nearly erased
November's gains, took some shine off the otherwise upbeat report.
December marked the 11th straight month of payroll increases above
200,000, the longest stretch since 1994. For last year as a whole,
the economy generated 2.95 million new jobs, the strongest annual
showing since 1999.
The softness in earnings, however, is puzzling. Some economists
wondered whether last month's broad-based fall, which was led by a
record 1.2 percent plunge in the retail trade sector, was a seasonal
fluke that would be revised away.
"There is no obvious fundamental economic factor that would
contribute to today's number," said Michael Feroli, an economist at
JPMorgan in New York. "We are disposed to view this decline as a
one-off."
The drop in earnings was the biggest on record dating back to 2006.
A separate, narrower gauge posted its largest percentage decline
since 1983.
The fall exacerbated a soft trend that has been in place since the
2007-2009 recession. Over the past year, earnings rose only 1.7
percent, the smallest 12-month gain since October 2012.
While December's earnings decline bolstered the case for the Federal
Reserve to take a go-slow approach to raising interest rates, it did
not remove a possible June hike from the table, economists said.
A Reuters survey of big banks showed many economists are sticking to
their June rate call.
But financial markets were less convinced. The dollar fell against a
basket of currencies and prices for U.S. Treasury debt rose as
traders pushed back their expectations for when rates would rise.
U.S. stocks lost nearly 1 percent after a two-day rally.
The Fed has kept overnight borrowing costs near zero since December
2008.
"We have not changed our Fed call for a June tightening, but it just
puts the risks later as opposed to sooner," said Dana Saporta, a
senior economist at Credit Suisse in New York.
THE GOOD AND THE BAD
All sectors of the economy had employment gains last month and, in
another sign of strength, 50,000 more jobs were created in October
and November than previously thought.
Overall, the data suggested the economy was positioned for strong
growth this year despite troubling weakness in some economies
overseas.
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Construction employment rose by 48,000, the largest gain since
January, while manufacturers added 17,000 workers. Government
employment increased by 12,000 positions.
In addition, the length of the average work week held at a
6-1/2-year high of 34.6 hours, suggesting further job gains are in
store. The softness in wages is striking given the tightening jobs
market. The unemployment rate dropped by more than a percentage
point last year, and is now near territory Fed officials consider
commensurate with full employment.
A San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank research paper published this
week suggested wage growth was tepid because many firms were unable
to reduce wages during the recession and are holding the line on
increases in return. [ID:nL3N0UO4QV]
Even so, economists expect to see a spark soon as the labor market
continues to tighten. About 21 states are raising their minimum wage
this year.
"The wage story should look much better at the end of 2015," said
Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG in New York.
Most of the measures tracked by Fed Chair Janet Yellen to gauge the
amount of slack in the labor market continued to point to tightening
conditions in December.
A broad measure of joblessness that includes people who want to work
but have given up searching and those working part-time because they
cannot find full-time employment fell two-tenths of a percentage
point, to 11.2 percent, the lowest level since September 2008.
The ranks of the long-term unemployed continued to shrink in
December. Almost two-thirds of the decline in the level of
unemployment last year was among the long-term unemployed.
But the labor force participation rate, the percentage of the
working age population who either have a job or are looking for one,
dropped back to the 36-year low of 62.7 percent reached in
September.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci, Nick
Zieminski, Paul Simao and Dan Grebler)
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