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"The first quarter of the 2005-06 marketing year for corn and
soybeans was characterized by a fairly slow pace of exports,"
said Darrel Good. "The slow start, along with the level of
outstanding sales, may result in smaller projections for the
year in the USDA's monthly report of supply and consumption
prospects to be released on Dec. 9." Corn exports were
reasonably large, at 498 million bushels, during the first
quarter of the 2004-05 marketing year but were soft during the
last three quarters of the year, Good noted. Exports for the
year totaled only 1.814 billion bushels.
For the 2005-06 marketing year, the USDA currently projects
U.S. corn exports at 2 billion bushels -- the most in 10 years
and 180 million above the average exports of the past nine
years.
"An expected decline in exports of corn by China accounts for
most of the optimism about U.S. corn exports," said Good.
For the current year, Census Bureau estimates of U.S. corn
exports are currently available only for September. USDA export
inspection estimates, from reports released on Mondays, are
available through Dec. 1. The estimates from the USDA's export
sales reports, released on Thursdays, are available through Nov.
24.
Cumulative inspections though Dec. 1 were estimated at 460
million bushels, said Good. For September, the Census Bureau
estimate exceeded inspections by 8.3 million bushels and
exceeded shipments by 3.8 million bushels. Through Nov. 24, the
export shipping estimates exceeded the inspection estimates by
7.5 million bushels.
"Considering all current information, corn exports during the
first quarter of the 2005-06 marketing year, September through
November, likely totaled about 485 million bushels -- just
slightly less than during the first quarter last year," said
Good.
"To reach the USDA projection of 2 billion bushels for the
year, shipments during the last three quarters need to total
1.515 billion bushels. That is 200 million, or 15 percent, more
than exported during the same nine months last year."
Good added that weekly shipments during the last 39 weeks of
the marketing year need to average about 38.85 million bushels
per week, compared with the average of 36.9 million to date. As
of Nov. 24, the USDA reported that 305 million bushels of U.S.
corn had been sold for export but not yet shipped.
"That compares to unshipped sales of 351 million bushels on
the same date last year," said Good. "The pace of exports and
export sales this year is slower than that of last year for
Japan, Egypt and 'unknown' destinations. The good news is that
export commitments to other major buyers -- Taiwan, South Korea
and Mexico -- exceed those of last year. The large sales to
South Korea and Taiwan may indicate that Chinese corn is not as
readily available as last year."
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U.S. soybean exports during the first quarter of the 2004-05
marketing year were huge -- at about 406 million bushels. Shipments
were 20 million bushels larger than the previous record for the
quarter, established the year before.
"Those large exports reflect aggressive buying by China following
the shortage of soybeans during the 2003-04 marketing year," said
Good. "Shipments were modest during the second and third quarters of
last year and were weak during the final quarter -- summer 2005.
"For the year, U.S. exports were a record 1.103 billion bushels
-- 39 million above the previous record of 2001-02."
For the current marketing year, the USDA projects U.S. soybean
exports at 1.075 billion bushels. Export inspections from Sept. 1
through Dec. 1 totaled 316 million bushels. For September 2005, the
Census Bureau estimate of U.S. soybean exports exceeded USDA
estimates by about 3 million bushels. Through Nov. 24, USDA's
estimate of cumulative export inspections exceeded the estimates in
the weekly export sales report by 3 million bushels.
"Available estimates suggest that U.S. soybean exports during the
first quarter of the 2005-06 marketing year, September through
November, totaled about 330 million bushels -- 76 million less than
shipments of a year earlier," said Good.
"To reach the USDA's projection of 1.075 billion bushels for the
year, exports during the last three quarters of the current year
need to total 745 million bushels, an average of 19.1 million per
week. Recognizing the sharp seasonal decline in export shipments
during the spring and summer, weekly exports need to be much larger
than that average during the winter months. The total needed is 48
million, or 7 percent, more than was exported during the same period
last year."
As of Nov. 24, the USDA reported that only 144 million bushels of
U.S. soybeans had been sold for export but not yet shipped.
Unshipped sales a year earlier totaled 231 million bushels.
"Total export commitments -- shipments plus outstanding sales --
to the European Union and China, the two largest buyers of U.S.
soybeans, are running 41 percent behind the pace of a year earlier,"
said Good. "In addition, unshipped sales to 'unknown' destinations
totaled only 22 million bushels as of Nov. 24, compared to 66
million at the same time last year.
"Of the major buyers of U.S. soybeans, only Mexico has purchased
more U.S. soybeans than at this time a year ago."
[University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences news release]
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