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Losses caused by the corn borer are
about 4 percent per borer per plant when the first and second
generation are averaged over the various growth stages of corn. This
simply means that if you find two corn borers in a plant, you have
lost about 8 percent of the yield for that plant, due to the damage
caused by the borer. Losses can be direct, which occurs when plants
break over or ears are dropped, or indirect, when the tunneling in
the plant reduces the flow of nutrients to feed the ear.
[Photo provided by John Fulton]
Central Illinois generally has two
generations per year, but a third generation is not uncommon. Larvae
overwinter in the stalks of last year’s crop, then pupate and emerge
as moths that lay eggs. The rest of the development is the same as
any moth.
Practices of shredding stalks or clean
plowing help reduce the number of moths that will come from a
particular field, but the moths can fly up to six miles. This means
that for shredding or plowing to be effective, all the neighbors for
six miles around a field would have to follow one of these practices
to protect the one field in the middle. In other words, we’ll have
to deal with the borers.
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Tools for dealing with corn borer
include scouting and integrated pest management. Some of the
available tools of integrated pest management include the use of
pesticides and B.t. corn. B.t. corn has had quite a bit of press the
past few years as an environmental problem with monarch butterflies,
but the question that needs to be asked is why monarch butterflies
would be in a cornfield when they feed on milkweeds and not corn.
Oh, well — so much for a public policy speech.
Growers should continue to scout for
corn borer egg masses and apply control measures when economic
thresholds dictate. Newer models for thresholds are based on
economics of control, with crop price, control cost, forecast yield
and control efficacies all applied. The old threshold was one egg
mass per every two plants. The main problem encountered is that the
egg laying gets spread out over a long period as the season wears
on, so it is hard to find the scouting threshold at any one time.
In
September, our office will conduct the annual overwintering survey
of European corn borer. This is done by counting damaged stalks,
counting borers in stalks and assessing the growth stage of the
borers. This will be the 20th continuous survey coming up for Logan
County, and Logan County is one of the few counties in the state
with continuous data. I’ll report the results as we get into the
fall months.
[John
Fulton]
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"Illinois milk producers need $13 per
hundredweight for milk to cover all costs and obtain a fair return,
but record-low milk prices — currently under $11 per hundredweight —
are killing profit margins," said Mike Hutjens. "At the same time
milk prices are down, hay prices are up, corn silage is
drought-stressed, and corn prices may reach $3 per bushel.
"From 40 to 50 percent of the cost to
produce milk is represented by feed costs."
The MILC program helps make up some of
the losses dairy producers face with record-low prices.
"Under the new farm bill, producers
have the option of having retroactive MILC payments start either in
December 2001 or receive a one-month payment for September 2002,"
said Hutjens. "The MILC payments begin at 77 cents per hundredweight
in December 2001 but are estimated to be close to $1.50 per
hundredweight by next month."
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Hutjens said that producers shipping
more than 1.3 million pounds of milk per month need to consider the
program’s options carefully.
"It is a much easier choice for those
producing at or below 2.4 million pounds per month," said Hutjens.
"The September-only option is the best."
In 2003,
Hutjens noted, producers can tell the USDA if they want the payments
to start as of Oct. 1.
[U
of I news release]
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"Under those circumstances, the
strength of demand will be extremely important in determining the
post-harvest price pattern," said Darrel Good. "What level of prices
will be required to limit consumption to the level of supply? The
market will carefully monitor the monthly soybean crush reports, the
monthly estimates of processing uses of corn and quarterly USDA
stock reports.
"In addition, monthly reports of
livestock numbers, cattle on feed and the hog inventory will provide
information about potential adjustments in use. In the case of
exports, the market has weekly USDA estimates of export sales and
export inspections."
Good’s comments came as he reviewed the
impact of recent weather changes on market prices. Recent
precipitation in some of the drier areas of the Midwest has brought
a halt to the week-old rally in corn and soybean prices.
"The market now has to sort out the
potential yield impact of the late-season rainfall," said Good.
"August precipitation, of course, will result in higher average
yields than would have occurred without the rainfall. The question
is whether yields will exceed the USDA August forecast.
"The objective yield portion of the
August forecast is based on the assumption of normal growing
conditions following the collection of data for the August
forecast."
Good added that the market remembers
the patter of yield forecasts last year, when late-season rainfall
also brought some relief to dry areas. For soybeans, the September
yield forecast was 0.5 bushel below the August forecast, but the
January estimate was 0.9 bushel above the August forecast. For corn,
the September forecast was 0.4 bushel below the August forecast, but
the January estimate was 4.3 bushels above the August forecast.
Contrary to popular belief, the late rains last year appeared to
boost corn yields more than soybean yields.
Based on the USDA’s forecast that
71.001 million acres of corn will be harvested for grain in 2002,
each bushel change in yield would mean a 71-million-bushel change in
production.
"A four-bushel increase in the U.S.
average yield this year would change prospects for a very tight
supply-and-demand balance to prospects for a more comfortable
balance," said Good. "Still, year-ending stocks might not be much
above one billion bushels."
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Harvested acreage of soybeans is
projected at 72.029 million acres, so that a one-bushel change in
yield would alter production by 72 million bushels. A
72-million-bushel increase in production over the August forecast
would produce a crop of 2.7 billion bushels.
"A crop of that size would still
require a 200-million-bushel reduction in use during the year ahead
in order to maintain year-ending stocks above 150 million bushels,"
said Good.
Currently, the only consumption data
available are the weekly USDA export sales reports. Early sales are
not a good indicator of actual shipments in the subsequent marketing
year, but these sales are examined for clues about buying patterns
of individual importing countries. As of Aug. 8, only 90.5 million
bushels of soybeans and 86.3 million bushels of corn had been sold
for export during the 2002-03 marketing year.
"The last time that consumption of U.S.
corn and soybeans had to be restricted was the 1995-96 marketing
year," said Good. "Two factors appear to be significantly differed
for corn in 2002-03 than in 1995-96. First, the magnitude of the
needed cut in consumption was much larger in 1995-96. Use was
reduced by 800 million bushels, or 8.6 percent in 1995-96 compared
to use in 1994-95. This year, use can be maintained at the level of
use during 2001-02 if the crop is at least as large as the August
forecast.
"Second, demand does not appear to be
as strong currently as it was in 1995-96. High livestock prices and
strong world economics meant that adjustments in consumption were
not made early in the 1995-96 marketing year and that an extremely
high price was eventually required to force the necessary reduction
in use. The implication is that, with a trend yield in 2003, price
will not have to go nearly as high this year as in 1995-96. The
price pattern this year may be more typical of a short crop year,
peaking early in the year."
For soybeans, the current situation is
different from that of 1995-96 in two significant but contrasting
ways, Good noted.
"The use of
U.S. soybeans may have to be reduced by more than 200 million
bushels this year, compared to a 60-million-bushel reduction in
1995-96," he said. "However, the 2003 South American soybean crop
may be double the size of the 1996 crop. Larger South American
supplies mean a lower price would be required to make the needed
reduction in the consumption of U.S. soybeans."
[U
of I news release]
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