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Features

[OCT. 3, 2002]  Conservation leaders and agricultural futurists will meet next week to discuss the future of agriculture and conservation in the country’s heartland. "The Changing Faces of Conservation and Agriculture — The Future of Working Lands" runs Oct. 8-10 at the Moline airport Holiday Inn.

The regional conference is sponsored by the Soil and Water Conservation Society, the SWCS; USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, the NRCS; and other conservation organizations.

Special guests from across the country will share data and perspectives as they debate the challenges production agriculture and conservation of soil and water resources face. Discussions will include:

•  Shifting history of conservation and agriculture

•  Sustainability in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

•  Relationship of agriculture and rural communities

•  Conservation delivery systems

•  Science behind changes in agriculture and conservation

•  Wildlife and animal agricultural issues

The conference will include general and concurrent breakout sessions where lively discussions and information exchange can occur.

"With guest speakers such as Merlin Bartz, special assistant to USDA’s undersecretary for natural resources and environment, there’s tremendous opportunity for conservation professionals and agricultural leaders to gain new insights that will impact agriculture for generations to come," says NRCS Illinois State Conservationist Bill Gradle.

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SWCS President Craig Cox, NRCS Regional Conservationist Charles Whitmore, EPA Regional Administrator Jim Gulliford and agricultural futurist Bob Treadway will also address conference attendees.

The conference includes tours of the John Deere East Moline Harvester Works and the Mississippi backwaters, as well as Lock and Dam 15.

SWCS fosters the science and art of soil, water and related natural resource management to achieve sustainability. Members from Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin will attend the conference, and interested agricultural producers and landowners and the public are also encouraged to attend. Registration is $125 for SWCS members and $200 for nonmembers (one-year membership included).

Call (515) 284-4262 or visit http://news.swcs.org/e_article000041450.cfm for more details.

[USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service news release]

2003 crop rotations examined

[OCT. 3, 2002]  URBANA — Illinois farmers should revisit their crop rotation decisions for 2003 following this year’s dramatic increase in market prices for corn, soybeans and wheat, said a University of Illinois Extension farm management specialist.

"Planting more corn and more wheat while planting fewer soybeans may be economically advisable for producers," said Gary Schnitkey, who recently completed a study entitled "Crop Rotations for 2003: More Wheat and Corn?" in the "Farm Economics: Facts and Opinions" series.

Schnitkey’s study examined yields and direct costs for Illinois farmers and revenue less direct costs under different price scenarios. He cautioned that farmers should not totally rely on averages shown in the study. "Farmers should use their own yield and direct costs for double-crop soybeans," he emphasized.

In the study, the 2001 loan rate scenario has prices of $1.95 for corn, $5.45 for soybeans and $2.60 for wheat. These prices reflect average Illinois loan rates under the 1996 Farm Bill that were good planning prices from years between 1999 through 2002.

The 2003 contract price scenario used in the study represents estimated harvest-time prices for 2003 crops. Estimates were made using futures prices as of September 2002. This scenario uses prices of $2.30 for corn, $5.15 for soybeans and $3.30 for wheat.

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"Revenue less direct costs for these price scenarios on high-productivity farmland show soybeans having the highest return rate under the 2001 loan rate," said Schnitkey. "However, relative returns under 2003 prices change dramatically. Corn following soybeans has the higher per acre return followed by wheat. The return for soybeans is the lowest.

"This suggests that for high-productivity farmland, planting more corn and more wheat and less soybeans may be an economical move. A similar result occurs when figures for low-productivity farmland are applied to the model."

The complete report plus the "2002 Illinois Crop Budgets," which provided much of the data, can be found online at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu.

[U of I news release]

Scoop on the harvest:
better than expected

[OCT. 2, 2002]  Grain trucks and wagons are rolling in to area elevators, and, in general, corn yields are better than expected, say area elevator managers.

On Tuesday Hugh Whalen, general manager of East Lincoln Farmer’s Grain Company, said the corn harvest was 45 percent to 50 percent done in the immediate Lincoln area, not so far along in others.

"We think the harvest overall is about 35 percent done in our territory," Whalen said. "As you get over to the east, in the Beason area, it’s not so far along. Some corn was planted late because of the wet spring."

[East Lincoln elevator manager Hugh Whalen talks with Lincoln area farmer Carl Schwantz while Schwantz’s son dumps a load of corn.]

The East Lincoln elevator serves the northwest quarter of Logan County, including Lincoln, Lawndale, Atlanta, Beason and Johnston Siding.

"Yields are generally good," Whalen added. "Some are below average and some above average, but all in all the crop is fairly similar to last year’s. It’s not a record-breaking year, but it’s much better than the yield in some areas east and south of us. We got lucky with rain at the right time.

"The quality of the corn looks pretty good, too. For the most part, producers are pleased with their crop."

The corn coming into East Lincoln is fairly dry, with 18 percent to 19 percent moisture content, and some is even lower. Sunshine and wind the last few days helped dry it. Most elevators store corn at 14 percent, he said.

"Farmers are harvesting quickly because they want to get the corn out while it is still standing and still dry."

Paul Seaman of the Emden Farmer’s Grain Company reported Tuesday that corn in his area is 60 percent done, with variable yields. So far he’s heard of everything from 130 bushels to the acre to 200 bushels, with the majority in the 175 to 180 range. In sandier ground, the yields aren’t quite as good.

"Yields are better than last year. One producer said he’s gong to be 15 percent better than last year, when hail reduced the crop in that area," Seaman said.

However, corn in that area is coming in with a higher moisture content than producers would like, anywhere from 19 percent to 23 percent, Seaman said.

"We caught some showers in the middle of August," he said, "but those showers really saved the crop for guys who had to plant beans late because of the wet spring.

"Most of our producers are pleasantly surprised by the yield, especially since we didn’t have optimum conditions," he added.

The Emden elevator serves the northwest part of Logan County and a small part of southern Tazewell County.

[Elevator superintendent Doug Conley rakes beans through the grill in the floor into the pit below.]

"We’ve got just over 50 percent of our corn in," said Jeff Duckworth, general manager at Hartsburg Grain Company.

"Corn harvest has gone pretty well, with an unobstructed three weeks to get it in. The yields are pretty decent, a little better than last year."

"Corn is wetter, though, because of late planting due to spring rains. A good portion of our crop was planted the last of May or the first of June instead of the first of May. The moisture content is 20 to 22 percent, when it’s usually 17 or 18 percent by the first of October, so we’re doing a lot of drying."

The Hartsburg area was lucky this year, Duckworth said. "South and east of here, yields fall off pretty hard, all the way to Ohio and Tennessee. We’re pretty close to the edge of where yields turn decent."

The Elkhart Grain Company is about halfway done with corn, according to general manager Don Ludwig.

"The yield on corn is better than we probably could have expected, and better than last year, when the average was only 151 bushels per acre.

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"The yield is extremely variable, from the 120s to the 180s. Overall my guess would be that we’ll end up in the 160s, which is average in our area. We would get very excited at yields of 180 bushels per acre," he said.

The moisture content of corn in the Elkhart area is variable, too. "We had 14.7 percent for some April-planted corn, but we have some corn at over 22 percent. Some corn planted late hasn’t been harvested yet; a lot was planted the end of May and early June. That will probably come in on the wet side, in the low 20s."

Ludwig said the southwest part of the county didn’t get as much rain as some other areas.

"The Burton View and Emden areas had better rain than we did. And when we were getting two-tenths or three-tenths of an inch, Lincoln was getting eight- or nine-tenths. But we were very fortunate we got what we did. The rain we got in mid-July was a lifesaver for late-planted corn," he said.

"We are just on the edge of the territory where yields are good. They drop off just east of here. Our corn is better than corn on the other side of Decatur.

"Most producers are very, very pleased with the corn yields, not because it’s the best they’ve ever had, but because it’s better than they expected," Ludwig said.

Mark Hunsley at Burtonview Co-op, on the west side of Lincoln, reported Tuesday that about half the corn harvest in his area is in, and beans are just starting. Corn is drying quickly, coming in with 18 percent to 19 percent moisture, he said.

"The harvest is as good as last year, if not a little better. We’ve had good rain; every time it rained around here, we got rain. Our crop is not a record-breaker, but it’s good."

[Photos by Joan Crabb]
[The East Lincoln Farmer’s Grain Company elevator at Kruger Road is ready for trucks and wagons to come in filled with grain.]

The soybean crop is just starting to come in at East Lincoln, Whalen said, and if early beans are any indication, the harvest should be as good as it was last year. About 15 percent of the crop is in.

Seaman said about 30 percent to 35 percent of the beans in the Emden area are in. He said it’s hard to say how the yield is, but it’s probably going to be better than last year. So far it looks "decent," in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Sixty bushels per acre is a very good yield.

At the Hartsburg elevator, Duckworth is seeing some beans that aren’t looking good. "Late rains seem to have brought some disease in the beans. So far yields are variable."

The bean harvest has just barely started in the Elkhart area, Ludwig said.

Prices for both corn and beans are not as high as they were when the harvest started, but they’re better than they were last year, according to Whalen.

Corn prices are about 50 cents higher than last year. On Tuesday corn was at $2.43 cents a bushel, he said. Bean prices have dropped in the last few days, down to $5.22 per bushel. That’s better than last year, but not what most people would consider a good price, he said.

"When the harvest first started, corn prices were up in the $2.70s," Seaman said. They were in the $2.60s the first part of September, but we got a cash bid today for only $2.41.

"Beans took a big hit, too. The market slipped 60 cents in the last three weeks. Not many people are buying beans just now. Buyers have bought more corn than beans," Seaman said.

"Good market demand could raise the prices later in the year, but it’s fair to say we don’t expect to see any huge surprises," Ludwig said.

[Joan Crabb]

Weekly outlook

Hog market upturn

[OCT. 1, 2002]  URBANA — Hog producers are breathing a sigh of relief because, although they still face losses this fall and early winter, it appears that these will not be as severe as anticipated, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"A return to break-even prices can be anticipated by early spring, with some positive returns by late spring and summer," said Chris Hurt. "If additional sow liquidation occurs this fall and winter, hog prices should be strong in the last half of 2003 and into 2004.

"For now, producers should calculate their variable or out-of-pocket costs and continue to produce hogs this fall, as long as they anticipate they can recover these variable costs. In general, most will continue to keep animals in inventory, but they should trim their least productive animals, keep market weights moderate and continue to evaluate their long-term strategies in this changing industry."

Hurt’s comments came as he reviewed the USDA’s September Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which showed the breeding herd to be down 1.7 percent as of Sept. 1, following a slightly higher inventory in June.

"The panic selling of sows and lightweight market hogs in July and August appears to have a silver lining, as the breeding herd has shifted into liquidation and market hog numbers will begin to decline later this fall," he said. "As a result, the fears of insufficient slaughter capacity and horribly depressed prices this fall have eased. Hog producers will still have losses to face in coming months, but they will not be nearly as large as was feared."

The decline in the breeding herd can be attributed to rapid liquidation of sows in July (up 20 percent), August (up 17 percent) and September (up 12 percent). During these three months, a total of 120,000 more sows were slaughtered as compared with the same period last year. Looking back to the spring, sow slaughter in the months of April, May and June was also 5 percent larger than during the same period last year, representing an additional 40,000 sows.

"Fewer sows meant that farrowings this past summer were much lower than anticipated," said Hurt. "In the June quarterly report, producers indicated they would farrow 2 percent more sows in the June-August period but actually reduced farrowings by 1.5 percent.

"As a result of the smaller summer farrowings, the inventory of market hogs was also much smaller than anticipated. The number of pigs that weighed 120 to 179 pounds, representing the bulk of October slaughter, was up 3 percent. But slaughter of market animals should begin to drop below year-earlier levels in November, as the 60- to 119-pound inventory was down modestly. The number of pigs that will come to market in December to February was down 1 percent."

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Hurt noted that producers indicated that they intend to continue to reduce sow farrowings, and thus market hog supplies, into 2003. Fall farrowing intentions were down 2.5 percent, and winter farrowing intentions were down 1 percent.

Marketing weights have also come down sharply and are expected to help moderate pork supplies during the next 12 months.

"The reason is high feed prices and low hog prices," said Hurt. "The transition to lower weights occurred in August. At the start of the month, slaughter weights were nearly 1 percent above the weights of the previous year but dropped below year-ago weights by the end of the month. Weights have moderated further in September, dropping as much as 2 percent below last year, likely because of advance marketing of market hogs.

"For the fall, weights are expected to remain slightly under those of last year but can be expected to increase with higher hog prices into the winter. For the next 12 months, weights may be up only about 0.4 percent."

Hurt indicated the hog price tone should improve immediately with prospects for less pork than had been anticipated. Still, pork production in the fourth quarter of 2002 and first quarter of 2003 will likely be nearly unchanged from production in the respective quarters in the previous year. However, by spring and summer, supplies are expected to drop by about 2 to 3 percent. For all of 2003, pork production should be down about 2 percent.

"Fall prices for 51 to 52 percent lean hogs are now expected to average in the $30 to $34 range," said Hurt. "This is a substantial improvement over the mid- to higher $20s discussed before the report. Prices should improve to the higher $30s in the winter and keep marching higher into the spring, when they are expected to average in the low $40s. Summer 2003 prices may reach the low to mid-$40s."

Because of the rapid liquidation, financial losses are not expected to be nearly as large as feared prior to the report. Total costs are currently estimated in the $39 to $41 range and have declined somewhat with moderation in corn and meal prices since the Sept. 12 USDA grain updates. Losses in the third quarter just completed are estimated at about

$20 per head but are expected to be somewhat larger for the last quarter of the year, at $22 per head.

"However, by winter, losses should be reduced to about $5 per head," said Hurt. "There is potential for a return to break-even prices by the spring and some profits by summer. Lower feed prices by the fall of 2003 could drop costs back into the higher $30s."

[U of I news release]

Aflatoxin guidelines
for livestock producers

[SEPT. 28, 2002]  URBANA — Some parts of Illinois are reporting moldy corn after a growing season marked by heat and stress. Livestock producers need to exercise caution if they are feeding corn possibly tainted by mold, said Michael Hutjens, University of Illinois Extension dairy specialist.

"Illinois toxicologists report that the moldy corn samples they are seeing appear to be Fumonsin and recommended that producers have tests conducted for aflatoxins, DON, zearlenone and fumonsins in representative samples of corn," he said. "The cost is $65 per sample to screen for four mycotoxins, while Fumonsin alone is $30."

Mycotoxin and Fumonsin contamination of corn fed to livestock can cause a number of problems. To avoid these, livestock producers should have grain tested before feeding and, if grain is found to be contaminated, strictly follow U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidelines for its use.

"Producers also need to remember that proper handling of damaged corn is critical, as additional growth and mycotoxin occurs if moisture, oxygen and warm temperatures exist during storage and handling of the damaged feed," said Hutjens.

Based on FDA guidelines, Gavin Meerdink, U of I Extension beef and feed safety veterinarian, recommends the following levels in feed: no more than 300 parts per billion (ppb) in corn fed to finishing beef cattle; 200 ppb for finishing (over 100 pounds) swine; 100 ppb for breeding beef cattle, breeding swine and mature poultry; and 20 ppb for other animal feeds.

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"Based on recommendations of U of I Extension veterinarians, dairy cattle diets should not contain more than 20 ppb in the total ration dry matter," said Hutjens. "This is not because of a health threat to the lactating cow; rather it is related to milk residues."

Hutjens said the aflatoxin is metabolized by the dairy cow and some can be excreted in the milk. Milk must be under the 0.5 ppb level, the maximum allowed by the FDA.

"In addition to losses from tainted milk, dairy producers also can see decreased feed intake by their cows, reduced rumen VFA production, increased liver damage, lowered reproductive efficiency and less milk yield," said Hutjens.

"All livestock producers need to be aware of these potential problems and exercise care in feed use of mold-damaged corn."

[U of I news release]

New Web tool can map and
analyze any part of Illinois

[SEPT. 27, 2002]  URBANA — Everyone, from farmers and natural resource experts to city planners and real estate agents, has an innovative new Web tool at their fingertips, thanks to the combined efforts of the University of Illinois, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources and other agencies.

The tool is the Resource Management Mapping Service, the RMMS, a new website that allows people to create maps of any area within Illinois in a matter of minutes.

"The uses for the RMMS website are as varied as the users," said Rick Farnsworth, natural resources economist with University of Illinois Extension. "State staff uses RMMS to track changes in natural resources and adapt management plans accordingly. And farmers visit the site to get a bird’s-eye view of production or calculate acreage needed for state and federal conservation programs."

"A long-distance runner once used the website to measure and map a marathon route," Farnsworth added. "In addition, real estate agents have used it to show prospective clients the area in which they hope to buy property."

"City planners also benefit," he said. "If a town wants to expand, they need information about the impact this growth will have. For instance, where will this growth occur in relation to the town’s existing boundaries? Will growth encroach on the state’s mandated buffer around public wells or protected habitat? They can start making decisions using the maps they create on this website."

"One of the key strengths of RMMS is that we have most of the data that is publicly available from state and federal agencies," Farnsworth noted. "Users can come to one site, locate the area of interest to them and create the maps they need."

Users can search by county, watershed, town or ZIP code, or they can draw rectangles on the map to zoom to an area they want to view, he said. Once there, they can choose a base layer on which to lay all other data layers. There are more than a dozen base layers, including cropland maps from 1998, 1999 and 2000 or aerial photographs taken in 1998 and 1999 that allow you to see the land in question.

After a base layer has been chosen, any number of other layers can be added. These include:

•  Resource layers, which identify county land, lakes, rivers, watersheds, wetlands and other natural resource features.

•  Administrative layers, which include various Department of Natural Resources districts, as well as townships, congressional and legislative districts.

•  Economic layers, such as state highways, county roads, wells and more.

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After choosing the layers you wish to see, simply hit the refresh button. One note of caution: Zoom in to the area you want to map before overlaying data. Most of the data sets are very large and take time to load. The smaller the area you choose, the less time you will spend waiting to view your map.

When users are finished, they can create their own log-in name and password, then load and save their map for future reference. Maps can also be printed or e-mailed to work associates, state agencies, family or friends.

According to Farnsworth, the next step for the RMMS site is to create decision tools based on the information available.

"During the first two years, our job was to collect data and make it available over the Web," he said. "Now we’re developing tools that will help agencies and the public assess the impacts of land use change on the state’s natural resources. Our partnership with IDNR and the other agencies is focusing university research on the state’s resource problems and providing the means in which it can be used shortly after it becomes available."

The Wetland Impact Review Tool, or WIRT, is the first of several such tools that will come online in 2003.

"When someone wants to change land use," said Farnsworth, "WIRT will alert the user to likely resource problems. Click on the WIRT tool, zoom in to the land in question and draw a line around it. Everything else is automatic. WIRT will give you a head’s-up on the presence of nearby wetlands, nature preserves, streams and flood zones, to name a few."

The RMMS website is funded by the Illinois Department of Natural Resources and the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research, C-FAR. Farnsworth believes it is a noteworthy success story of cooperation that started with C-FAR members setting a high priority on better resource management of the state’s natural resources.

"C-FAR provided funds to collect data and build new partnerships between the university and the state of Illinois," said Farnsworth. "The end result will be a state-of-the-art system that IDNR and the public can use to protect the state’s soil, water, plant and animal resources."

The RMMS website is located at http://space1.itcs.uiuc.edu/website/rmms.

[University of Illinois press release]

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