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Low production may hamper
exploitation of higher prices

[OCT. 25, 2002]  URBANA — Relatively higher grain prices compared with those in the past few years may not offset lower yields caused by Illinois’ adverse weather conditions this growing season, warned a University of Illinois Extension farm management specialist.

"While the summer’s price upswing has been welcomed by producers, some may find that the higher prices may not completely offset lower revenue caused by lower yields as a result of adverse weather conditions," said Dale Lattz. "In addition, higher grain prices will reduce the amount of farm program payments. There most likely will be limited loan deficiency payments, and no counter-cyclical payments are scheduled for this fall."

Further aggravating the potential economic bad news is the fact that the new farm bill does not include provisions for market loss assistance and oilseed payments that have been paid out in the past few years.

"Higher grain prices will offset much of the drop in farm program payments for producers with average or above-average yields," said Lattz. "This will not be the case for producers with a shortfall in production.

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"Even for producers with normal yields, their cash flow will be altered considerably this year due to the drop in farm program payments. Others who had been in the practice of prepaying expenses before the end of the year may decide not to this year."

Lattz outlined the situation in a Sept. 30 report, "Cash Flows Tight on Many Grain Farms This Year Because of Reduced Government Payments," that is part of the "Farm Economics: Facts and Opinions" series from the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences. The report is available at http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/
newsletters/fefo02_18/fefo02_18.html.

He noted, however, that a significant drop in grain prices could change the developing scenario.

"For some producers, crop insurance proceeds will offset some of the loss in revenue due to lower yields," said Lattz. "The drop in farm program payments also has cash flow and income tax planning ramifications that producers need to examine."

The full report includes tables comparing estimated farm program payments for 2001 and 2002 for a central Illinois grain farm. Lattz noted that differences in farm program payments between 2001 and 2002 will vary from farm to farm depending upon a number of factors.

"These factors include base acres and yields for different program crops, crop rotations, and actual yields," he said.

[U of I news release]

[OCT. 24, 2002]  URBANA — The fertilizer applicator moving across the University of Illinois agricultural engineering farms passed a crucial test in the past year — an eye test.

U of I’s fertilizer applicator possesses something that you don’t usually find on farm machinery. It has a high-tech eye, a single camera mounted roughly 12 feet in front of the boom. Researchers tested the vision sensor last year and found that it was extremely accurate in determining whether plants are under stress due to a lack of nitrogen.

According to agricultural engineer Qin Zhang, the sensor’s ability to detect nitrogen stress in plants was comparable to leaf tests using a SPAD meter.

This year, Zhang said, the goal is to merge the sensor with variable-rate technology. The result will be a machine that uses its high-tech eyesight to scan the plants as it moves across the field. The resulting data is then sent to a computer that controls the variable-rate applicator. The applicator varies the rate of fertilizer according to the nitrogen needs of different plants. And it does the job on the fly in real time.

As Zhang and fellow agricultural engineer Alan Hansen put it, such machines are the next big step for variable-rate technology.

Currently, Hansen explained, farmers must map the field in a separate pass, either aerial or on-ground. Then the map is plugged into a computer and used to vary the rate of fertilizer. But there is a considerable delay between creating the map and actually applying the nitrogen.

With this new system, the images are taken and processed literally seconds before the fertilizer is applied.

To determine nitrogen stress in corn plants, the applicator-mounted sensor analyzes the reflectance of light coming from the plants, Hansen said. But this is no easy task. The sensor must be able to distinguish the light bouncing off the plant from the light bouncing off the background soil. What’s more, it must be able to do the job under all kinds of environmental conditions.

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"If you have a cloudy day, your camera will see the crop differently," he pointed out. Therefore, the sensor must be able to take into account the effect of a cloudy day on light reflecting from the plants.

According to Zhang, the variable-rate sprayer is able to change the rate of nitrogen being applied by individual nozzles, making it possible to vary the rate on different rows. The key is making sure that the right nozzle hits the right plants with the right amount of fertilizer as determined by the on-board sensor and computer.

U of I work on this project dates back to 1997, when it was started by professors John Reid and Shufeng Han with funding from the Case Corporation. Zhang is now leading the effort to create a prototype applicator by 2003 — a machine that is fully capable of scanning the crop, determining nitrogen stress and varying the rate of fertilizer applied, all in a single pass. This work is being funded by the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research.

According to Hansen, the new developments in sprayer technology may have the potential of reviving interest in variable-rate technology. As he explained, the first wave of enthusiasm over variable-rate equipment in the 1990s has waned because of economic considerations.

The selling point has always been more accurate applications with variable rates. Increased accuracy would bring savings in chemicals, not to mention less risk to the environment.

"But there’s still some skepticism as to the economic benefits of this technology," Hansen said.

Since the early days, however, the technology has become more reliable and computing power has soared, he added. Combine those advances with an ability to vary rates on-the-go in real time, and the variable-rate system may eventually find itself riding a new wave of interest.

[U of I news release]

Soil temperature maps help with timing of nitrogen fertilizer application

[OCT. 23, 2002]  Illinois farmers have a tool to help them determine when to apply post-harvest nitrogen fertilizer since daily maps of soil temperatures across Illinois are available on the Web, at http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/warm/soiltemp.asp, from the Illinois State Water Survey, a division of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources.

The maps are based on continuous observations of soil temperatures at selected Illinois Climate Network sites and are updated by 4 a.m. each day. "These maps serve as a guide to general soil temperatures within a given region and reflect existing temperature trends across the state as the fall season progresses. Given the variability of temperatures within a local area, it is important that farmers and applicators verify the soil temperature of each field before applying nitrogen fertilizer in the fall," says ISWS meteorologist Bob Scott.

The maps represent soil temperatures observed between 9 and 10 a.m. the previous day across Illinois at a depth of 4 inches below a bare soil surface and daily (midnight to midnight) 4-inch bare soil maximum and minimum temperatures at the same locations.

The Illinois Agronomy Handbook, available from the University of Illinois College of ACES, states that fall soil temperatures determine when ammonium-containing nitrogen fertilizer may be applied without the occurrence of excessive nitrification. The rate of nitrification is reduced at soil temperatures of 50 degrees and below. Application of anhydrous ammonia with a nitrification inhibitor can begin at soil temperatures below 60 degrees. The soil temperature at 10 a.m. each day is used in making the determination.

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Map users should be aware of current soil temperatures and short- to long-term weather forecasts. According to Scott, "Soil temperature fluctuations during fall may result in periods with soil temperatures below the accepted threshold for nitrogen application followed by an extended period with soil temperatures above the accepted threshold. The date of the first soil temperature below 50 each fall is often several weeks before the last soil temperature above that value."

Other maps on the site show average dates when soil temperatures drop and remain below 60 and 50, respectively. Due to occasional periods of warm weather in winter, the handbook does not recommend fall application of nitrogen south of Illinois Route 16, roughly the southern third of the state.

The Web resource, created through a grant from the Illinois Department of Agriculture Fertilizer Research and Education program, also includes soil temperatures at 4 and 8 inches under sod, air temperatures, dew point temperatures, wind speed and direction, solar radiation, potential evaporation, and precipitation in map and table formats.

[Press release from Illinois State Water Survey]

Weekly outlook

Cattle prices

[OCT. 22, 2002]  URBANA — While live cattle prices are currently several dollars above cash prices, the latest USDA Cattle on Feed report will provide incentives for futures to move even higher, and cash prices are likely to follow — at least in the short run, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"Finished cattle prices should push into the higher $60s in November and perhaps to near $70 by the end of the year," said Chris Hurt. "Further strength is now expected early in 2003, as beef production finally begins to decline.

"Prices are expected to reach the mid-$70s by late March or early April. Supplies are expected to remain about 2 percent to 3 percent below year-earlier levels for the remainder of 2003, with prices continuing to average in the low to mid-$70s in the summer."

Hurt’s comments came as he reviewed the September report that made cattle price prospects shine a bit brighter, as the number of cattle in feedlots was down 6 percent on Oct. 1.

"After a year of larger cattle slaughter and heavy weights, some moderation in slaughter runs can be anticipated by early 2003," he said. "Monthly cattle-on-feed numbers have been 5 percent to 7 percent below year-earlier levels since July. This means that supplies of slaughter cattle will likely begin to drop in early 2003 and will continue to be smaller through next year."

Prior to the report, there was an anticipation that the number of cattle placed in September would be up by 11 percent. However, placements were up only 2 percent. In addition, September marketings, at 2 percent higher than last year, were greater than pre-report anticipations. Other encouraging information from the report was that placements of heavyweight cattle were down. As an example, September placements of 800-pound and heavier cattle were down 16 percent, indicating a potential gap in fed supplies in the first quarter of 2003.

"The number on feed is lower in areas more severely impacted by drought and higher in areas with normal or high corn yields," said Hurt. "Drought-impact states with fewer cattle on feed include Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Iowa, with an excellent corn crop, has more cattle on feed."

So far this year, beef production has been up 3.8 percent. This is composed of about 1 percent more marketings and nearly 3 percent greater weights. In the third quarter, total production was up by 5.6 percent, with the head count up about 3.1 percent and weights up by 2.5 percent. In the third quarter, dairy cow slaughter was up about 11 percent, indicating a relatively quick reaction by the dairy industry to rising feed prices and low milk prices.

"This means that dairy cow numbers will likely be down a few percentage points in the January inventory report," said Hurt. "Beef cow slaughter was up only 1 percent in the summer, as cows from drought areas in the western Plains and Mountain States were primarily moved further east to pasture rather than heading to slaughter."

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Weights remain the thorn in the side of the industry, Hurt noted. After Sept. 11, 2001, the rapid drop in finished cattle prices caused feedlot managers to withhold cattle in the first seven weeks after the event. By the end of 2001, weights had risen by about 3 percent and continued to rise into March 2002, when they were up 5 percent. During the coming year, weights are expected to moderate due to higher feed prices and higher fed-cattle prices. However, weights may not come down to year-earlier levels until next spring.

"With the large beef supplies this year, prices have been disappointing," said Hurt. "In the first three quarters of 2002, prices for Nebraska choice steers averaged $66.35 per hundredweight, compared with $74.83 for the first three quarters of 2001.

"Prices have dropped about 3 percent for each 1 percent increase in beef supplies — a large reaction of prices to changes in supply."

For the year 2003, beef supplies are expected to drop by about 3 percent, pork supplies are expected to be down by 2 percent, and total poultry supplies may rise by less than 2 percent. As a result, 2003 appears to be a year of recovering prices and much better profit prospects for livestock producers.

The depressed live cattle market and higher feed costs also took a toll on feeder and calf prices. In the first three quarters of 2002, 750- to 850-pound feeder steers at Oklahoma City averaged only $79, a full $10 below the average in the same period in 2001. For calves, the decline was even more severe. The price of 500- to 550-pound steer calves averaged $94 per hundredweight, $12 below the average in the same period in 2001.

Improved finished cattle prices are expected to be supportive to feeder cattle prices, averaging in the low $80s in the last quarter of 2002 in Oklahoma City and improving to the mid- to higher $80s by spring. Steer calf prices are expected to average in the higher $90s in late 2002 before moving up to the $103-$105 range in the spring at Oklahoma City. Prices in the eastern Corn Belt tend to be about $3 to $5 below Oklahoma City.

"By the fall of 2003, strong finished cattle prices and the potential for moderating feed costs point to even stronger calf and feeder prices," said Hurt. "Maintaining brood cow numbers, or even moderate expansion, seems to be the most favorable management strategy."

[U of I news release]

[OCT. 21, 2002]  Wide-A-Wake 4-H Club hosted the recent Logan County 4-H International Night program at the Logan County Extension building. Approximately 60 youth, parents and club leaders at the Oct. 14 event enjoyed a variety of foreign foods and table displays.

Stephen Wongratanamajcha, currently a student at Lincoln Christian College, was the featured speaker. Stephen was born in Burma and grew up in Chiangmai, Thailand. He is a member of the Lisu tribe. He is married and has three children, a daughter who is 14½ and sons 13 and 4 years old. He spoke about the different food, sports, religious cultures, weather and holidays in Thailand.

Chester 4-H Club represented Mexico with their displays and foods; Pioneers represented India; Wide-A-Wake chose Germany for their dishes and display; and the Millennium Clovers prepared dishes and displays from Poland.

To learn more about the 4-H Japanese Exchange, 4-H International Foreign Youth Exchange or the 4-H program, please contact the Logan County 4-H office at 732-8289.

[News release]

[OCT. 21, 2002]  URBANA — Although there have been significant improvements in soybean yields during recent decades, the percentage of the crop lost to diseases has remained virtually unchanged at 15 percent of total production. Major diseases, such as soybean cyst nematode and sudden death syndrome, continue to plague the soybean industry, with annual losses totaling 12 million metric tons.

While new sources of resistance have been identified for at least some of the important soybean diseases, improved sources of resistance are still required to achieve meaningful progress in protecting growers from continued losses. Scientists also need to more fully understand how those resistance genes are expressed in the plant and how they can be incorporated into commercial varieties available to growers.

To meet this challenge, the University of Illinois recently launched the Soybean Disease Biotechnology Center, with the mission of identifying and creating new sources of disease tolerance and resistance that will increase the profitability of the industry. The center will be based at the U of I’s National Soybean Research Laboratory. Funding for this new effort was provided by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"The center will bring the power of the new genetic sciences to bear upon SCN and other major soybean diseases that continue to rob growers of yield every year," said Steve Sonka, director of the NSRL and one of the coordinators for the project. "It is expected that the center will also become the first line of defense against new and emerging soybean diseases, such as soybean rust."

The primary goal is to reduce the annual losses to soybean diseases and to identify new sources of resistance from the genetic stocks available in USDA’s National Soybean Germplasm Collection, housed at the U of I.

"Additional efforts will focus on moving those resistance genes into elite soybean cultivars, using the latest biotechnology techniques," Sonka said. "We also will be identifying how the movement of resistance genes into the new cultivars will affect other important attributes, such as yield, protein and oil content. There will be a high priority on disseminating this information directly to the soybean industry through Web-based programs such as the Varietal Information Program for Soybeans and through a wide range of publications and media outlets."

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As part of this project, the NSRL has assembled two teams of U of I scientists to conduct research that directly meets those objectives. The team headed by Professors Lila Vodkin, Jack Widholm and Steve Clough will apply leading-edge technologies to dissect the complex interactions of the soybean with specific pathogens and develop biotechnology strategies to control those diseases.

"This group will use the latest approaches in structural and functional genomics and genetic transformation to achieve that goal," Sonka said. "One of these innovative techniques involves so-called ‘gene-shuffling,’ which has tremendous potential to rapidly generate new resistance genes. Other techniques at the cutting edge of science will allow them to determine if the genes are effective and to insert them into soybean plants for increased resistance."

The other scientific team, headed by Professors Terry Niblack and Chris Lambert, will focus on genetic analysis of SCN virulence and how that knowledge of pathogen virulence can be used to protect soybean resistance in the future.

"The ability to use biotechnology to predict SCN virulence through genetic markers will provide an invaluable tool for growers," Sonka said. "Success in this goal would provide growers for the first time with a wide array of soybean varieties with maximum resistance to SCN genotypes found in their specific fields. For both teams, special emphasis will be placed on communicating the results quickly and effectively to both industry and the growers."

[U of I news release]

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