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Weekly outlook

Hog market

[APRIL 8, 2003]  URBANA -- The continued financial discouragement in hog prices needs to stimulate more producers to reduce their herd sizes, allowing for even larger reductions in the national breeding herd this year, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"Unfortunately, it appears that the industry is slow to adjust hog numbers downward at this time, likely due to the concentrated industry structure and the newness of capital investments made over the last 10 years," said Chris Hurt. "In past hog cycles, it has taken around 1½ years from a period of losses until the industry reduced production and returned to profits.

"If the timing is similar on this cycle, this would mean we are just entering the time when higher prices would be expected, with the highest prices and profits not anticipated until 2004."

Hurt's comments came as he reviewed the hog market, which he described as "failing one price test after another so far this year."

The USDA's "March Hogs and Pigs" report provided renewed hope for higher prices in the futures market, yet cash prices remained stuck in the lower $30s one week after the release. Losses continue to mount, as the market must now rely on the traditional spring price rally to salvage a return to a break-even situation.

"Needless to say, producers need to see the hog market pass this test," Hurt noted.

The March inventory report from USDA indicated that producers across the country have reduced the size of their breeding herds by 4.5 percent. Given the large financial losses over the past year, even greater reductions in the herd can be expected throughout 2003.

"Farrowing intentions for this spring and summer are down at least 3 percent, which should reduce the number of market animals through next winter," said Hurt. "The direction is correct, but there remains a question of whether the magnitude of the reduction is large enough to push hog prices back into profitable ranges."

Minnesota was the only major production state to have an increase in the size of its breeding herd, up 4 percent. Oklahoma and Texas breeding herds remained unchanged. Illinois and Iowa herds were down 7 percent, Indiana was down 6 percent, Nebraska was down 4 percent, and both Missouri and Ohio were off 3 percent.

"Producer decisions to decrease their herds may have been influenced in the eastern Corn Belt by the small corn crop -- 121 bushels per acre average in Indiana and only 88 bushels per acre in Ohio," said Hurt. "However, the record corn crop in the western Corn Belt does not explain large decreases in the Iowa herd, where yields average 165 bushes per acre."

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The market herd was reported to be down only 1.6 percent. There is some hopeful news in the weight breakdowns, as it appears that the number available for slaughter should soon begin to drop. The 180-pound-and-over category was more than 1 percent greater than last year at this time. However, most of these hogs should have been marketed by early April.

Pigs that will come to market in April through August were down from 2 percent to 2.5 percent. If so, this could finally mean that slaughter supplies will soon be coming down and provide the needed stimulus for rising prices, Hurt noted.

"Producers have been operating at a loss for the last 13 months, dating back to March of 2002," said Hurt. "Those losses were the most severe in the last quarter of 2002, when they averaged an estimated $21 per head for average production costs. Losses were more moderate in the first quarter of 2003 but still were about $9 per head. Low hog prices helped packers to their best margins in four years during this period."

Given the larger-than-expected supplies so far this year, pork production for the entire year may be down only 1 percent. However, that means about a 2 percent reduction for the remainder of the year. With continued small beef supplies and the potential for a recovering economy, hog prices are expected to average $37 to $38 for the year. The highest prices are still expected to come this spring, when daily highs could move into the lower to mid-$40s.

Late summer prices are expected to drop back toward the higher $30s. Prices in the mid-$30s should be expected for late in the year, with prices moving into the higher $30s for the first quarter of 2004.

"Moderation in costs of production should also be expected over the next 12 months," said Hurt. "Interest rates remain low and could even dip somewhat before increasing late in 2003. Fuel and energy prices are likely to move lower with the resolution of the military conflict in Iraq and the increase of oil supplies from that country into the world market.

"Feed prices face the uncertainty of the coming growing season, but a 'normal' weather situation in the United States could lower both corn and meal prices somewhat, although dramatic reductions in corn prices should not be expected at this time."

[University of Illinois news release]

• Repairing storm damage to trees
  (Article from Michigan State University Extension)

[APRIL 7, 2003] 

Master Gardener plant sale

One of the U of I Extension Master Gardener fund-raisers will be coming our way on Saturday, April 26. The sale is scheduled for 9 a.m. to noon (or sellout) at the Extension office, 980 N. Postville Drive in Lincoln, on the northwest corner of the fairgrounds. The Master Gardener group will offer perennials, annuals and houseplants this year. Of course you can talk to a Master Gardener as well, if you can get one pulled aside!

Composting self-study course

There have been many requests for composting information over the winter. In response, we will be offering the Home Study Composting Course. There are six sessions total. To participate, just send us your name and address with a check for $5 to cover the postage cost. We will send you two lessons per week for three weeks. At that time you should be able to construct your own compost bin and make it work properly.

If you would like to see a large-scale compost system in action, you may visit one at the west end of the Extension office building (located on the fairgrounds side of the fence) or at Jefferson School's garden in Lincoln.

Field operations

With a few days of drier soil conditions, some field work has been occurring in Logan County. Most of the field work has been fertilizer application, leveling off ground and some limited spraying. Of course thoughts have popped up about planting corn, but what are the advantages and the disadvantages?

The primary advantage is getting corn planting completed by the recommended date so that there isn't a penalty for late planting. There is also a penalty for early planting, but it isn't as great as planting on the late side. April 10 planting dates carry about a 6 percent yield reduction. Optimal planting time is April 25-30, with very slight reductions in potential yield for planting April 20-May 4. Optimal plant populations are between 30,000 and 32,500.

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There are some other factors to consider when planting early: Herbicides and insecticides are probably not going to stay active as long as we think they are; seed in the ground takes longer to germinate and is exposed to more secondary insect damage; stands may emerge more unevenly; and the risk for replant goes up.

The major advantage to early planting is wrapping things up in a timely fashion. This has to be weighed against the other factors.

Extension Week

The West Central Region has designated next week as Extension Week. It is a time for us to be grateful for many things that have happened through the years and continue to happen with the great support that is provided in our community.

Many of University of Illinois Extension's programs aren't always associated with Extension. Some of those programs are 4-H, the Family Nutrition Program, Master Gardeners, and of course agriculture and horticulture.

Since the official beginning of Extension, with the Federal Smith-Lever Act in 1914, and the beginnings of Extension in Logan County in 1918, the University of Illinois Extension system has continued to bring research-based information to the local people. Your continued support throughout the year has made it all possible.

To highlight the week, I thought it might be good to have a little contest. The office will provide awards to at least 10 individuals who send in a list of "Farm Advisers" and "Home Advisers" for Logan County since the Extension started.

[John Fulton]

Youth to salute 4-H at the state Capitol

[APRIL 7, 2003]  SPRINGFIELD -- More than 2,500 Illinois 4-H youth and family members will participate in the seventh annual 4-H Legislative Connection at the state Capitol on April 15. During the event, 4-H youth will meet their state lawmakers and learn more about the legislative process.

Throughout the first floor of the Capitol, 4-H exhibits will be on display. The "Best of the Best" 4-H exhibition will feature nearly 800 Superior Award-winning exhibits from last summer's Illinois State Fair.

Educational workshops and tours are also included in the day's activities.

The Illinois 4-H Club Presidents Invitational Conference will run in conjunction with Legislative Connection.

An action-packed rally in the Capitol rotunda and a special luncheon program will celebrate achievements of more than 400,000 Illinois 4-H members and leaders.

The 4-H Legislative Connection is a nationally recognized program, cited twice by the USDA for national program of excellence. It has been replicated in 12 states.

Nationally, 4-H is the largest out-of-school educational program for youth and is part of U of I Extension programs.

[4-H news release provided by Amy Hyde of the University of Illinois Extension in Logan County]

In Southeast Asia, hunger rationalizes benefits of biotechnology risks

[APRIL 4, 2003]  URBANA -- While well-fed countries engage in conversations about whether or not biotechnology should be used to prevent pests and boost the world's food production, developing countries in Southeast Asia express optimism toward the technology in hopes of saving their starving populations, according to a University of Illinois social scientist.

"In southeast Asia, key stakeholders believe that the benefits of biotechnology outweigh the risks," said Napoleon Juanillo, social scientist in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U of I. "They have many more mouths to feed than we do in the United States, so they are focused more on feeding the hungry than engaging in discourse about the moral and ethical dimensions. Although moral and ethical concerns are expressed, for the most part, that is an elite discourse and one they do not have time to engage in."

Juanillo recently completed a collaborative survey in five Southeast Asian countries: Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. With help from approximately 250 university scientists in those countries, he surveyed urban consumers, businessmen, Extension workers, farmer leaders, religious leaders, journalists, policymakers and scientists about their opinions and perceptions on biotechnology.

"Those who participated in the survey are the key stakeholders of these countries," said Juanillo. "But, they are also rational people who are looking realistically at their starving population and seeing the benefits of biotechnology as a way to feed the masses.

"Anything new and promising is welcome news to them. They seem to be saying, 'Our people are starving and you're telling me to consider the risks?' It's an elite discourse."

By way of comparison, as of July 2002, the United States had a population of a little over 280 million. Indonesia is about three times the size of Texas and has a population of over 231 million. The total population of the five Southeast Asian countries Juanillo surveyed is estimated at 481 million people.

"The message to Illinois farmers is that Southeast Asia is a big market for corn and soybeans and there is not much opposition to biotech products in those countries," said Juanillo.

Currently, Vietnam experiments heavily with biotech products. Indonesia grows bitotech cotton. The Philippines recently approved field testing of biotech corn, while the Malaysian government is pushing for more experimentation and Thailand is just beginning experimentation.

"Although fear of the unknown typically drives up concern, the people of Southeast Asia are hopeful of anything new that will help their country," said Juanillo. "They welcome any technology that will bring more prosperity to their country. Developing countries are always behind, and they look at biotechnology as a potential tool to help them catch up.

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Juanillo said that there is a misconception that these Southeast Asian countries are just growing rice. "They're a tropical explosion. And, if biotechnology can help them to develop more varieties of mangoes or papayas, that's a good thing to them. Anything that can help them produce better crops, they're in favor of."

It all began with a talk at a conference in Thailand in 1999 about the role that culture and other social variables play in the public's perception of the risks of biotechnology. Napoleon Juanillo was asked by the Department of Agriculture in the Philippines to give a similar talk in the Philippines. This snowballed into more speaking engagements.

With assistance from the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech Applications and the International Rice Research Institute, Juanillo was able to coordinate studies in the five Southeast Asian countries.  The logistics alone involved monumental orchestration. The survey first had to be translated into three other languages besides English -- Thai, Bahasa Indonesia and Vietnamese.

"I made one trip to Bangkok where the entire team gathered in order to describe the protocol for administering the surveys so that all of the data would be compatible. Later we met in Malaysia to look at the progress. The ISAAA served as coordinator of the project, and it was my job to analyze the data collected," said Juanillo.

Juanillo said that the project was partially funded by Hewlett Foundation, the University of Illinois, the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research, and the agricultural universities in the five Southeast Asian countries in which the studies took place.

"These universities provided manpower consisting of geneticists, plant pathologists and molecular biologists who are interested in what people think and whether the work they are doing with biotechnology is relevant," said Juanillo. The survey was patterned after the Eurobarometer public perception surveys on biotechnology.

[University of Illinois press release]

[APRIL 1, 2003]  The Lincoln/Logan County Chamber of Commerce recently sponsored its fourth annual Ag Day breakfast as part of the National Agriculture Week observance. Agriculture community leaders, businessmen, industry leaders and students gathered at the new American Legion Hall in Lincoln. This year's breakfast was themed "Planting the Seeds for Progress."

The highlight of the annual breakfast is the presentation of the Ag Day scholarships. A total of $4,000 in scholarships was awarded to students currently studying or planning to further their studies in agriculture. This amount is double from the first Ag Day four years ago.

Blane Olson, a senior at Mount Pulaski High School, and Abrigail Sasse, a senior at Lincoln Community High School, were awarded $1,000 scholarships. (Click here for information about the students and a picture posted previously.)

Casey Davis, Natalie Coers, Kent Leesman and Jason Wrage were awarded $500 scholarships. (Click here for more information about the students.)

Those in attendance at the Ag Day breakfast also heard about the exciting research projects being conducted at Washington University by former scholarship recipient Elizabeth Stoll.

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Attendees also heard keynote speaker Dr. Steve Sonka, director of the National Soybean Research Laboratory and soybean industry chair in agricultural strategy, speak on the future of agriculture. Sonka, a renowned agribusiness academic, described innovative university research being conducted. Dan Kelley, chairman of the board and president of Growmark also gave comments on the future trends, and Rep. Rich Brauer provided insight into state agriculture programs and incentives.

Larry Huelskoetter, committee chairman for the breakfast, emphasizes that the scholarship program, free breakfast and other ag-related programs for the community would not be possible without the generous support of local businesses. This year's sponsors includes financial institutions, ag-related businesses, grain elevators, car and agriculture implement dealerships, and farm supply stores.

[Press release]

[APRIL 1, 2003]  In conjunction with Agriculture Day at the Capitol in Springfield on March 26, seven Hartsburg-Emden FFA members spent part of the day visiting with their state legislators, Rep. Bill Mitchell and Sen. Bill Brady.

Annie Sanders, Nicole Buse, Blaine Hellman, Jacob Moehring, Scott Ubbenga, Curtis Conrady and Kasey Hoerbert also had the opportunity to sit in on a press conference where Senate Republicans were stating their opposition for reinstating the farm equipment sales tax.

Lastly, these FFA members assisted in delivering lunches and agricultural commodity baskets to all legislators.

[FFA news release]

(Left to right) Jacob Moehring, Sen. Bill Brady, Kasey Hoerbert, Annie Sanders, Nicole Buse, Curtis Conrady, Scott Ubbenga, Blaine Hellman and Rep. Bill Mitchell.

Honors & Awards

Ag Day scholarship winners

[MARCH 25, 2003]  Six area students received a total award of $4,000 in local Ag Day scholarships -- double the amount awarded four years ago on the first Ag Day.

$1,000 scholarship winners

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Ag Announcements

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