|
"Pork producers can't wait to
put low hog prices behind them, but the market this year has been
slow to respond," said Chris Hurt. "Help should be on the way,
although the spring rally may not be as strong as many had hoped."
Hurt noted that producers are
weary of losing money. In 2002, prices for 51 percent to 52 percent
lean hogs averaged about $35 for the year, and estimated costs of
production were $38.60 per live hundredweight. Losses reached an
estimated $9.60 per hog.
"The largest losses came in the
final quarter of the year, when they were over $8 per live
hundredweight, or $21 per head," said Hurt. "The situation is
somewhat better in the first quarter of 2003, with prices expected
to average near $36 and losses trimmed to an estimated $3.50 per
hundredweight."
Disappointing prices in the
first two months of 2003 stem from a larger supply of hogs than had
been expected based upon USDA inventory reports. Pork production in
the first quarter of the year was expected to be only slightly
higher than during the same period last year. However, in January
and February, pork production has averaged 2.4 percent higher.
"Some moderation in slaughter
rates can be expected in March, so that the number of hogs coming to
market will be closer to even with year-previous levels," said Hurt.
"By spring, hog supplies could be down about 2 percent, based upon
last fall's farrowing numbers."
The USDA's "Monthly Hogs and
Pigs" report is also providing statistical support for slaughter
supplies to be lower in the spring. The size of the pig crops in
October, November and December (representing spring slaughter) was
down over 2 percent.
[to top of second column in
this article]
|
"Hog prices should be on the
verge of a spring rally that could take live hog prices from near
the mid-$30s at the start of March to the lower-$40s by the end of
May," said Hurt. "If supplies drop as much as 2 percent for the
spring quarter, as USDA reports suggest, prices could average near
$43. However, a more realistic objective right now is an average of
$40 for the second quarter."
Summer supplies will be drawn
from sows farrowed this winter, when producers said they would
reduce numbers by 1 percent. If producers follow through, summer
supplies will be only modestly lower, and prices for the summer
quarter would average a bit under $40.
Data continue to point to a
breeding herd that is dropping slowly. Farrowing intentions for the
spring have been estimated at down 3 percent, and recent monthly
reports have shown the number of females bred in November, December
and January to be down by 2.7 percent, helping to confirm this
magnitude of reduction. If so, pork supplies could continue to drop
modestly into the final quarter of 2003, with prices averaging in
the mid- to higher $30s.
"The best news for now is that
losses are likely to be nearly over as the spring price rally sets
in," said Hurt. "However, prices cannot be expected to be high
enough through the year to provide much more than a break-even level
on average.
"Production costs may drop from near $40 per hundredweight at the
start of 2003 to closer to $38 with lower corn prices, assuming
near-normal corn yields this fall. Hog prices, on the other hand,
are expected to average about $39 for the year. After the large
losses experienced last year, it appears that a break-even year in
2003 will not enable producers to recover from those losses."
[University
of Illinois news release]
|
|
"Using the latest digital equipment,
the staff at local offices can take high-quality images of the plant
and pest problems," said Dennis Bowman, project coordinator and crop
systems educator at the Champaign Extension Center. "The images,
along with information about the problem, are then submitted to the
appropriate experts. Last year, more than 20 percent of the samples
were diagnosed within two hours of submission and nearly 75 percent
within 48 hours."
Bowman notes that the service is now in
its third year of statewide operations and is provided free through
the local Extension offices.
"In 2002, more than 700 people in every
part of the state received answers to their plant and pest problems
through the Distance Diagnostics System," Bowman said. "We have more
than 50 Extension educators, specialists and U of I faculty
available through this system to provide their diagnosis for almost
every problem."
He points out this imaging technology
allows every Extension office in the state to have almost instant
access to the diagnostic skills of those experts.
[to top of second column in
this article]
|
"We have an unsurpassed range of
available experts," Bowman said. "The group includes highly trained
specialists with expertise in field crops, forage crops, turf,
fruits, commercial vegetables and home pest problems."
He adds that the system has been
further upgraded this year to provide even better service to
Extension clients.
"The changes
include improved systems reports and added printer-friendly forms
that will speed up the process," Bowman said. "Other internal
upgrades allow for a better search function and improved
notification of undiagnosed samples. As a result, we are now
responding faster than ever with answers to the many plant and pest
problems that people submit to us."
[University
of Illinois news release]
|
|
Gardner, who is a distinguished
university professor and chair in the Agricultural and Resource
Economics Department at the University of Maryland, is a former
president of the American Agricultural Economics Association and
received the group's Distinguished Policy Contribution Award in
1994. He also served as USDA assistant secretary for economics from
1989 to 1991. Gardner is not related to Leonard and Lila Gardner.
After earning his undergraduate degree
at the U of I in 1964, Gardner received his Ph.D. in economics from
the University of Chicago. He is the author of numerous books and
articles, including "American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century:
How it Flourished and What it Cost," published in 2002 by Harvard
University Press.
The lecture
is free and open to the public.
[University of Illinois news
release] |
|
