|
"Other factors driving these expectations include increased
acreage of double-cropped soybeans stemming from an increase in
acreage of soft red winter wheat and a rebound in acreage in
Minnesota and the Dakotas if spring weather is more normal,"
said Darrel Good. Good's comments came as he reviewed
consumption, stocks and acreage of soybeans.
"The magnitude of U.S. soybean exports during the current
marketing year continues to be disappointing," he said. "The
USDA now forecasts 2005-06 marketing-year shipments at only 900
million bushels.
"At the beginning of the 2005-06 marketing year, the USDA
expected U.S. exports would reach a record 1.115 billion
bushels. That forecast has been lowered every month since
October 2005."
So far this year, USDA weekly export estimates have been
tracking the monthly Census Bureau estimates very closely, he
noted. Through January 2006, both the cumulative inspections
estimate and the cumulative estimate from the export sales
report were just 5 million bushels below the Census Bureau
estimate of 510.7 million bushels.
As of March 16, exports totaled about 671 million bushels,
200 million less than on the same day last year. Only Taiwan and
Mexico have imported more U.S. soybeans this year than were
imported last year.
"Shipments to China, which have accounted for 46 percent of
all U.S. exports, are running nearly 22 percent behind the pace
of a year ago," said Good. "Unshipped sales of U.S. soybeans to
all destinations on March 9, 2006, totaled only 98.3 million
bushels, compared to 119 million on the same date last year.
"Only China has larger sales on the books than at this time
last year. That total, however, is only 29 million bushels. With
a record-large South American harvest under way, U.S. exports
may struggle to reach 900 million bushels by Aug. 31, 2006."
The domestic crush of soybeans so far this year has exceeded
the early USDA forecast. The projection in September 2005 was
for a marketing-year crush of 1.685 billion bushels, 11 million
less than the crush of the previous year. The March 2006
forecast was at 1.72 billion bushels, 1.4 percent larger than
last year's crush.
"The cumulative crush through the first five months of the
marketing year was 2.2 percent larger than that of a year ago,"
said Good. "Indications, however, are that the crush slowed in
February. The larger-than-expected crush to date has been fueled
by slightly larger soybean meal exports than forecast at the
beginning of the year and a slightly lower meal content of the
2005 crop."
Soybean oil consumption is currently expected to be 19.125
billion pounds, compared with the September 2005 forecast of
19.15 billion pounds. The soft export market for U.S. soybean
oil, along with the record-high oil content of the 2005 crop, is
expected to result in year-ending U.S. oil stocks of 2.679
billion pounds, only slightly below the record year-ending
inventory of 2.877 billion pounds in 2000-01.
[to top of second column]
 |
 Good noted that the USDA will release the estimate of March 1
inventories of U.S. soybeans on March 31.
"If seed, feed and residual use of soybeans is following the
pattern established during the first quarter of the marketing year,
consumption of U.S. soybeans during the second quarter of the
marketing year should have been near 827 million bushels, about 98
million less than use during the same quarter last year," said Good.
"March 1 stocks of soybeans, then, should have been near 1.675
billion bushels, 294 million more than the inventory of a year ago
and 218 million above the previous record inventory for that date in
1999."
The USDA will also release the annual prospective plantings
report on March 31. That report is expected to show a significant
increase in intentions for soybeans compared with last year's
planted acreage of 72.142 million acres. Planted acreage in 2005 was
3.066 million less than planted in 2004 and 1.768 million less than
intended in March 2005.
"The decline in 2005 was spread across all regions, but the
largest decline -- 1.55 million acres -- was in the western Corn
Belt," said Good. "Plantings declined by 400,000 acres in Minnesota
and 800,000 acres in North Dakota. Combined acreage in those two
states was 700,000 less than March intentions, reflecting a wet
spring and a large area of prevented plantings."
Expectations for 2006 U.S. soybean acreage appear to be centering
on an increase of about 2 million acres, to a total of 74.1 million.
"At that level of planting, harvested acreage would likely be
near 73 million," he noted. "U.S. average yields have been
record-large in the past two years, at 42.2 and 43.3 bushels,
respectively. The National Weather Service forecast through June
2006 suggests no significant deviation from normal weather
conditions in any production area.
"A yield of 42.8 bushels in 2006, then, would produce a crop of
3.124 billion bushels, equal to the record crop of 2004 and 38
million larger than the 2005 crop."
While consumption of U.S. soybeans during the 2006-07 marketing
year will likely be larger than the 2.782 billion projected for this
year, a crop of 3.124 billion would still lead to another buildup of
U.S. soybean stocks, perhaps to near 670 million bushels by Sept. 1,
2007, Good added.
 "Stocks at 670 million bushels would project to a 2006-07
marketing-year average farm price near $5.30, even if strong
speculative demand for soybeans continues," Good said. "Without that
speculative demand, prices would be much lower.
"The futures market is currently reflecting a 2006-07
marketing-year farm price near $6."
[University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences news release]
|
