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The 2021 harvest results
are varying greatly. From creek bottom ground which flooded in June
and July to better drained ground with some natural rolling
topography shows the great variations from zero to almost record
yields. My house showed over 23 inches of rain between April and the
end of September. Some areas of the county had much more, and some
much less. The June total of almost eight-and-a-half inches was
notable. Of course, that time period saw the extreme heavy rains in
McLean County of well over 10 inches in a two day period. This fed
the creek systems leading to record flood events, and the complete
loss of crops planted in those bottomlands.
The interesting nature of doing business during the era of Covid-19
extends to agriculture. Transportation of inputs and machinery is at
the top of the list. Labor to produce goods is harder to find, and
more expensive. Transportation backlogs are well noted in both
domestic and foreign shipments. Add in the chip shortage for
everything with a sensor, and production has been curtailed in the
ag sector. The machinery market has mimicked the auto market. Good
used equipment is quite valuable, and manufacturers are doing more
production on a custom order basis for a year or more into the
future.
Economics is still at the center of agriculture. In areas with very
good yields and the increased prices, U of I projected budgets show
some favorable returns in the $300 per acre range for central
Illinois corn and soybeans. As always, much of the return depends on
when crops were priced, and when inputs were purchased. One of the
inputs with the largest increase was fertilizer, with an increase of
about 7% for 2021 and 25% for 2022. The estimated increases for 2022
also show about 8% for pesticides and 10% for seed costs. The
estimated increases show profitability returns to about $20 per acre
for corn and $122 for soybeans per acre, based on trend yields and
prices.
Estimated prices are calculated on supply and demand estimates.
These estimates include feed, processing, and export numbers.
Exports can be rather fickle, as they are dependent on the economies
of the countries which wish to purchase the commodities or products,
and the transportation to deliver them. There has continued to be
work on the infrastructure for transporting agricultural products.
Notable is the ongoing work on the major waterways with the lock and
dam systems.
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Challenges exist in the short
term for many areas in agriculture. There have been continued pest
control issues for insects, weeds, and diseases. Pests continually
evolve, just like human diseases. Continued work on control
strategies remains critical to maintaining production systems. This
includes pesticides, GMO traits, and cultural practices such as
rotations or cover crops. A true integrated pest management program
will provide our best options for control.
Another area is public policy.
The issue of fossil fuels is huge for agricultural production in the
renewable fuels made with corn and soybeans, and of course, the
tools used such as tractors which currently burn fossil fuels. The
prioritization and funding of additional infrastructure items for
movement of goods is also critical. Even the way waterways and small
streams are classified can have a huge effect on agricultural
production systems in the area.
As harvest finishes, many of the plans for next year are already
underway. Fertilizer is being applied, seed orders are being placed,
and marketing continues on the past and future crops. Best wishes
for a profitable and safe harvest for the remainder of the year.
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