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Tornado damage to crops

[JUNE 9, 2003]  With several tornadoes going through the county about a week ago, it is certainly easy to see the destruction. Many people have lost their homes, others have lost property, some have lost portions of crops, but luckily no one was hurt seriously. After the cleanup of outbuildings and homes, the attention turned to assessment of crop fields.

Cornfields were the most obviously damaged. Corn was much larger, and now there is a large bare (or soil-blown) area through fields where tornadoes were on the ground. The field assessments I made showed about 25 percent of the cornfields needing some replanting done. This was because those fields mostly had corn that was broken below the growing point. The other 75 percent of the fields were probably good enough to leave them. Of course there was some yield loss due to lost plants and missing leaves, but the penalty for late planting would about equal a stand of 14,000 plants left from the earlier planting. Most fields had at least that many plants.

Some recent research has shown that there may be a little more yield loss than charts show, but there certainly isn't a guarantee on replanting either. Miraculously the plants had already begun to regrow within three days.

Soybeans were a completely different situation. Many soybeans that were above ground were completely cut off. When cut low, soybeans are dead. There is really nothing left to regrow. With the late planting, there was a saving grace. That was that many beans were still below the soil surface and therefore protected. My estimates were that a third of soybean fields needed some replanting done.

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[Tornado-damaged corn]

When the big picture is in, crop damage was minimal. I estimated about a quarter of a million dollars in crop damage. When we start looking at well over a hundred million dollars worth of crops grown annually in the county, it isn't an overall large percentage. It is however very significant to producers in the tornado paths. Crop losses of any kind make a rather meager income even less. Replant costs approach $50 per acre. Also, in the case of cornfields, there were herbicides applied already, which prohibited switching to soybeans that wouldn't be affected as much by late planting.

The damage to ornamentals was also very large. If you need assistance with evaluating fields or ornamentals after the storms, you may contact me at the Extension office for assistance. The number is 732-8289 or e-mail fultonj@mail.aces.uiuc.edu.

With about three years passing, there is a revised set of operation cost charts available. These costs are often referred to as "custom rates." These charts may be accessed at the U of I farmdoc website at http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/
machinery/cost_estimates.html.

[John Fulton]

Organic farm tour

[JUNE 5, 2003]  URBANA -- A tour of several organic farms in Woodford County will take place from 9 a.m. to noon on Monday, July 14. Terra Brockman, president of The Land Connection Foundation, and other local farmers will host the tour, which will visit successful, diverse, organic farms.

"One farm grows 450 varieties of vegetables on 10 acres," said Brockman, "and probably makes more money than on 1,000 acres of conventional corn and soybeans. Another farm we'll visit has 500 certified organic acres of cropland and pastureland. They raise beef, hogs, dairy cows, chickens, turkeys, sheep and geese, as well as organic grains in a seven-year rotation, and some fruits and veggies. In between, we'll stop and visit a new organic farm that's in the process of transitioning to organic grain production." Brockman said that there will be tastings at each farm and refreshments at noon.

There are six tours being offered this summer through the University of Illinois Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program. The first tour took place in June and visited ethnic grocery stores in Chicago. "Sustainable agriculture includes alternative farming practices like organic, but it's also about ways to provide an adequate and dependable farm income," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, a U of I research specialist who is coordinating the tours.

On Tuesday, Aug.12, community-supported agriculture will be the topic, with a tour of Angelica Organics in Caledonia.

Tuesday, Aug. 19, a tour will visit Tanglefoot Farm in Simpson to learn about prawn farming.

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On Wednesday, Sept. 10, the topic will be agritourism, with a visit to Hardy's Reindeer Ranch in Rantoul. The tour will include a hayride and lunch served in the style of the grand Old West.

The final tour is scheduled for Wednesday, Oct. 29, to Pike's Hunting Club in Marion, where the topic will be waterfowl fee hunting.

A registration form is available online at http://web.aces.uiuc.edu/asap/index.html or by contacting Cavanaugh-Grant.

For additional information contact Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant at (217) 968-5512 or cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu.

A small fee will be charged for each tour. Registration at least one week in advance is required.

The tours are sponsored by the Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois, the North Central Region Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Professional Development Program, and the Illinois Small Farm Task Force.

[University of Illinois press release]

Weekly outlook

Hog prices

[JUNE 3, 2003]  URBANA -- Live hog prices are expected to average in the low to mid-$40s this summer and drop back to the very high $30s to low $40s for the fall, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"If this does occur, the year would show a modest positive margin for many hog producers," said Chris Hurt. "Lower feed prices are also expected by the fall if weather is near normal this summer. Profit prospects for 2004 should be favorable, with some continued reduction in pork supplies, smaller beef supplies, lower costs of production and the improving economy we have all been waiting for."

Hurt's comments came as he reviewed the hog market. He noted that hog producers have just seen their operating margins break back into positive territory. Operating losses have been the rule since March 2002, when hog prices dropped below $40 per live hundredweight.

"They have generally averaged below the $40 mark until last month," he said. "Mounting losses last summer and the higher feed prices resulting from last summer's drought have caused producers to cut back on the size of the breeding herd. The cutback was modest last summer but has continued to gain steam such that the current herd size is down about 3 percent."

Hurt noted that the reduced breeding herd size has already begun to be reflected in reduced pork production. Pork supplies have been down about 3 percent over the past two months, and supplies will likely continue to stay down. Pork supplies for the summer and fall are expected to be down about 2 percent.

Hog prices will get some upward encouragement from the demand side as well. The cow that tested positive for BSE in Canada should have some upward spin for hog prices. So far, beef demand in the United States seems to have been little affected.

"This means that the much larger impact has been from the reduced beef supply coming from Canada," said Hurt. "In 2002, the United States imported 1.7 million live cattle and 1.1 billion pounds of processed beef. In total, this amounted to about 8 percent of all beef consumed.

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"The reduction of this amount of beef supply seems to be the dominating impact, as live cattle prices have topped $80 per live hundredweight in June for the first time ever. Pork demand will be enhanced as consumers respond to the record high retail beef prices with some substitution of pork."

Hurt added that the trade picture should also begin to turn friendlier for pork producers. Japan and South Korea have also shut off imports of beef from Canada. While this will be most positive for beef exports with known U.S. origin, it will also increase pork exports to these two major buyers. Of course, U.S. pork exports to Canada may be reduced, but this impact could be much smaller, as exports so far this year to Japan and South Korea are nearly six times larger than pork exports to Canada.

Exchange rates are another positive development for live hog prices, particularly with Canada, which has been supplying about 6 percent of the United States' live hogs.

"The U.S. dollar has dropped in value relative to the Canadian dollar by 13 percent this year," said Hurt. "The strengthening Canadian dollar provides less incentive to ship hogs to the United States for finishing and processing. However, it will take more time for this impact to develop, as most of these hogs enter the United States on coordinated finishing contracts."

Finally, the U.S. economy shows signs of emerging from its long period of slow growth, at least as forecast by the current rising stock market. Faster growth in consumer incomes would have a small, but positive, impact on hog prices.

"So what do these fundamentals mean for hog prices?" Hurt said. "Clearly, declining hog numbers in the United States, the potential for reduced Canadian imports and improving demand should mean better times ahead for hog producers."

[University of Illinois news release]

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