Features,  Honors & Awards,  Ag Announcements

Calendar,  Ag News Elsewhere  (fresh daily from the Web)

Features

Weekly outlook

Commodity prices

[DEC. 10, 2002]  URBANA -- Corn and soybean prices could become more volatile beginning in March as the market refocuses on U.S. production prospects for 2003, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Those holding inventory, or other long positions, in anticipation of a price rally should likely plan to hold those positions into the spring," said Darrel Good. "An earlier rally would be welcome but is currently not expected."

Good's comments came as he reviewed recent movements of corn and soybean prices.

"If you blinked, you missed the post-harvest recovery in corn prices," he noted. "The average cash price of corn in central Illinois reached a late harvest low of $2.30 on Nov. 11, rebounded to $2.40 on Nov. 19 and then declined to $2.275 on Dec. 5. The average central Illinois basis weakened in late November as the carry disappeared from the futures market.

"The recent price action was not unexpected, given the very strong basis during the harvest period and the struggling corn export market. On Friday of last week, the carry in the futures market for old crop corn increased, and the average central Illinois basis strengthened to minus 4 cents under March futures."

Good said that post-harvest price action in the soybean market has been more typical. The average central Illinois cash price bottomed in early October, rallied about 65 cents into early November and then declined about 15 cents into early December. The average central Illinois basis strengthened to minus 5 cents under January in early November and then weakened to about minus 10 cents in early December.

"The post-harvest recovery was driven more by an increase in futures prices than in the strengthening of the basis," said Good. "The higher futures prices reflected a rapid rate of exports and concerns about the South American crop."

The USDA will update the projections of U.S. and world supply and consumption on Dec. 10. Late changes from the November projections for corn and soybeans are not expected. However, the pace of soybean exports is larger than that implied by the USDA's projection for the year. At 890 million bushels, 2002-03 marketing year exports are expected to be 16.3 percent smaller than exports of a year ago. Through Dec. 14 (14 weeks into the marketing year), shipments were running only 6 percent behind the pace of a year ago. As of Nov. 28, however, unshipped sales of soybeans totaled only 275 million bushels, 12 percent less than on the same date last year.

On Jan. 10, the USDA will release the final estimate of the size of the 2002 U.S. corn and soybean crops.

[to top of second column in this article]

"Again, large changes from current projections are not expected, but the late soybean harvest in the South may have resulted in above-normal field loss or unharvested acreage," said Good. "In addition, some believe that the estimate of harvested acreage of corn might be reduced as well, to more fully reflect the impact of drought in some major corn-producing areas."

Also on Jan. 10, the USDA will release an estimate of U.S. winter wheat seedings. Typically, this report might have only small implications for corn and soybean prices.

"This year, however, a large increase in winter wheat seedings is expected," said Good. "Such an increase would have implications for the acreage available for spring-planted crops. Questions about the mix of spring-planted crops will remain an open issue, but the wheat report will be an early indicator of total acreage of spring crops."

While USDA reports will provide important information to the market place, most attention will remain on the rate of consumption of the crops. Some negative demand news has been received in recent weeks.

"This has been in the form of smaller domestic livestock inventories, continued large shipments of Chinese corn, larger estimates for Canadian crops and some improved weather prospects in South America," said Good. "Positive news includes the large Chinese appetite for soybeans, a record pace of ethanol production and confirmation of smaller U.S. inventories of soybean oil."

The average cash price of corn during the first quarter of the 2002-03 marketing year was near $2.40, equal to the midpoint of the USDA's projection of the marketing year average price. The average cash price of soybeans during the first quarter was about $5.40 per bushel, also equal to the midpoint of the USDA's projection of the marketing year average price.

"It may be that both corn and soybean prices will trade in a relatively narrow range during the winter months, particularly if the South American soybean crop makes normal progress," said Good. "The Jan. 10 USDA reports have the most potential to give new direction to prices.

"In addition to final crop estimates and winter wheat seedings, those reports will include the estimates of Dec. 1, 2002 U.S. crop inventories. Expectations of South American production will be firmer by that time as well."

[U of I news release]

Agriculture census

[DEC. 9, 2002]  If you have ever wondered where all of those agricultural statistics come from, wonder no more. They come from the "Census of Agriculture" that is administered by the National Agricultural Statistics Service branch of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This census is done every five years, and guess what? 2002 is a census year.

Census forms should be received by farmers and ranchers by late December and are due back by Feb. 3, 2003. Response to the 2002 Census of Agriculture is required by law. The law also provides for the responsibility of safeguarding the privacy of operators responses. No data will be disclosed about an individual operation.

Data collected from the census is used for many purposes. Uses include research, ag policy development, emergency farm program planning and many others. For assistance in completing census report forms, you may contact the USDA at 1 (888) 424-7828.

Upcoming programs

Several special Extension programs will be occurring over the next couple of months. Following are dates, events and locations:

Dec. 19 -- Beef Cow Nutrition Workshop, 1-4 p.m., Logan County Extension

Jan. 7-8 -- Illinois Crop Protection Technology Conference, Urbana

Jan. 11 -- Western Illinois Grazing Conference and Forage Institute, Macomb

[to top of second column in this article]

Jan. 14 -- Sheep Grazing Program, 7-9 p.m., Distance Telephone System

Jan. 16 -- Strip Tillage Workshop, 9 a.m.-3:30 p.m., Springfield

Jan. 24 -- Pesticide Applicator Training, 1-5 p.m., Wapella

Jan. 24 -- Certified Livestock Managers Workshop, Springfield

Jan. 30 -- Illinois Farm Management Conference, Bloomington

Feb. 20 -- Private Pesticide Applicator Training, 8:30 a.m.-1 p.m., Lincoln

Feb. 20 -- Certified Livestock Managers Workshop, Bloomington

Feb. 25 -- Crop Problems Diagnostic Workshop, 10 a.m.-3 p.m., Lincoln

March 5 -- Soybean Cyst Nematode Clinic, 9-11 a.m., Lincoln

For more information on any of these programs, you may call the Logan County Extension office at (217) 732-8289 or visit the office website: http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/cie/offices/calendar-t.cfm?oid=190&pflag=C.

[John Fulton]

Conference to focus on emerging issues in crop protection technology

[DEC. 7, 2002]  URBANA -- Along with updates on the latest developments in crop protection, the University of Illinois' 2003 Crop Protection Technology Conference will feature an array of speakers and topics on many of the "hot" issues that are confronting the agriculture industry today.

The event is scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 7, and Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2003, at the Illini Union on the U of I campus. Sponsors include the U of I's College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences and U of I Extension.

"The conference focuses on the latest developments in crop protection and the increasing importance of new technologies in agriculture," said Mike Gray, professor in the UI's Department of Crop Sciences and program co-chair. "This year's conference marks the 55th anniversary of our continuous involvement in environmental education, which is a record that is probably unrivaled by any similar program in the country."

Gray notes that the format for the 2003 conference allows participants to "tailor-make" their two-day experience. The morning session on the first day of the conference will feature keynote addresses on issues associated with homeland security and ag bioterrorism.

"The format for the following sessions allows participants to choose from among six symposia and 15 seminars to fulfill their educational needs," Gray said. "Each symposium will consist of four presentations, followed by panel discussions with the audience. The presentations are designed for smaller groups and allow for even more audience interaction."

The six symposia include coverage of environmental stewardship and spray drift, invasive species, improving water quality and natural resources, key pest and crop management issues, stewardship of transgenic technologies, and new developments in crop production products.

[to top of second column in this article]

"The 15 workshops will focus on important issues in plant diseases, weed, insects, soil and water management, and on sharpening in-season skills," Gray said. "Participants will be able to invest their time learning about different subjects by mixing their attendance at both symposia and seminars."

Certified Crop Advisor credits will be offered in the following areas: crop management, pest management, and soil and water management.

The preregistration fee for the conference is $90. Registration after Dec. 20 or at the door will be $105. Special rates at participating hotels are available for those attending the conference.

Participants will receive a copy of the 2003 Illinois Agricultural Pest Management Handbook, the proceedings of the 2003 Crop Protection Technology Conference and a complimentary Illini Crop Pro CD that contains those materials along with the 2003-2004 Illinois Agronomy Handbook and the complete 2002 Pest Management and Crop Development Bulletin.

Registration and program information on the conference is available from U of I Conferences and Institutes at (217) 333-2880 or toll-free at (877) 455-2687. Registration is also available on the Internet at https://www.conted.uiuc.edu/
fmpro/cptc2003.html.

[U of I news release]

Weekly outlook

Production forecasts

[DEC. 6, 2002]  URBANA -- The market generally interpreted the USDA's November reports as friendly for wheat prices, neutral for corn prices and a little negative for soybean prices, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Prospects for declining U.S. and world inventories of coarse grains, wheat and soybeans should keep prices generally supported," said Darrel Good. "However, higher prices for corn and soybeans over the next few months will have to come from a higher rate of consumption than currently projected and/or crop problems in South America.

"The post-harvest recovery in soybean prices offers an opportunity to increase sales. It could be spring before corn prices have an opportunity to move significantly higher."

Good's comments came as he reviewed the USDA's November forecasts of the size of the 2002 U.S. corn and soybean crops, as well as wheat. The projection of use during the current marketing year was increased for soybeans but reduced for corn. The projections of year-ending stocks for both crops are larger than the October projections. For wheat, the November report included a smaller production estimate, a smaller forecast of imports and a smaller projection for year-ending stocks.

The 2002 U.S. corn crop is now projected at 9.003 billion bushels, 33 million larger than the October projection.

"The increase resulted from a slightly larger projection of the U.S. average corn yield," said Good. "At 127.6 bushels, the projection is 0.4 bushels larger than the October projection. Higher average yields are expected for a number of states in the western and northern growing areas, but lower yields were projected for some eastern states. The average yield in Ohio, for example, is now projected at 96 bushels, eight bushels below the October forecast."

For the current marketing year, the USDA increased the projection of feed and residual use of corn by 25 million bushels but lowered the projection of exports by 75 million.

"The smaller export projection reflects a smaller projection of world consumption and trade and larger export projections for Argentina and China," said Good. "As expected, the USDA revised the estimates of Chinese inventories. The estimate of stocks of corn at the beginning of the year was increased by 5.5 percent.

"Year-ending stocks of corn in the United States are now projected at 848 million bushels, 84 million larger than projected last month. The season's average price is expected to fall in a range of $2.20 to $2.60. That projection is 10 cents lower than the October projection."

[to top of second column in this article]

The 2002 U.S. soybean crop is now projected at 2.69 billion bushels, 36 million larger than the October projection. The projection of the U.S. average yield was increased by 0.5 bushels, to 37.5 bushels per acre. The average yield estimate was increased by three bushels for Wisconsin and two bushels for Kentucky and Michigan. As expected, the USDA increased the projection of U.S. soybean exports for the current year by 40 million bushels, to a total of 890 million bushels.

"Surprisingly, however, the projection of the domestic crush was reduced by 15 million bushels, reflecting smaller export projections for both oil and meal," said Good. "Even though the planting season has been less than ideal in parts of South America, the USDA increased the forecast of the 2003 harvest by 3 percent, to a total of 3.13 billion bushels. The larger forecast reflects an increase in the estimate of planted area."

Stocks of soybeans in the United States at the end of the current marketing year are projected at 185 million bushels, 10 million higher than the October forecast. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $4.95 to $5.85, 10 cents lower than last month's projection. The projection for the average price of oil was increased by .005 cents per pound, but the projection of the average price of meal was reduced by $10 per ton.

At 1.616 billion bushels, the November U.S. wheat estimate was nine million bushels below the October estimate. The projection of marketing year imports was reduced by five million bushels. Year-ending stocks of U.S. wheat are projected at 358 million bushels, down from 777 million at the start of the year. The marketing year average price is projected in a range of $3.65 to $3.95.

"The USDA once again revised the estimates of Chinese wheat inventories," said Good. "Stocks at the beginning of the current year are now estimated at 2.814 billion bushels, double the previous estimate. Year-ending stocks are projected at 2.277 billion, 3.2 times as large as the October projection."

Good noted that the USDA will release a final estimate of the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Jan. 10.

"For corn, the January estimate was below the November forecast in each of the past four years but was above the November forecast 65 percent of the time in the past 20 years," he said. "For soybeans, the January estimate was below the November forecast in each of the past seven years and 65 percent of the time in recent history."

[U of I news release]

Extension creates Spanish forum

[DEC. 6, 2002]  URBANA -- Addressing the needs of a Spanish-speaking audience that is growing faster than the ability of a state or its Extension professionals to keep up is the focus of a group that includes a University of Illinois Extension program development specialist.

"The need for quality Spanish-language educational support and materials surpasses the resources available within any one state," explained Ben Mueller, who works with the U of I's Laboratory for Community and Economic Development and specializes in Spanish-language programs. He is part of a national group of fellow Extension professionals committed to improving the quality and quantity of Spanish-language materials available to their peers. This group includes representatives from the University of California, New Mexico State University and Texas A&M.

"Our group -- Extension en Espanol -- has created a website to help our colleagues who need Spanish-language materials."

Designed and maintained by the Extension en Espanol group, the website will provide Extension educational materials in Spanish and English, as well as providing production assistance on materials in Spanish for regional or national audiences. There are also resources for Extension professionals who are working with Spanish-speaking clients.

[to top of second column in this article]

"Our group and its website also provide a place to share expertise and experiences that will improve the quality of Extension outreach to Spanish-speaking audiences across the United States," Mueller added.

Through U of I Extension, Mueller has developed Spanish-language radio programming for areas of the state with Spanish-speaking populations.

"We believe the national online clearinghouse, Extension en Espanol, and the collaboration of Extension professionals working with Latino/a audiences across the United States will allow all of us to better serve an important client group," said Mueller.

[U of I news release]

[DEC. 5, 2002]  The Millennium Clover 4-H club met on Dec. 1.

Vanessa Tibbs, 4-H leader, asked for project sheets to be turned in since the deadline is Jan. 1.

The club donated $25 each to buy a Christmas gift from the Angel Tree and from the resident tree at St. Clara's Manor. A committee will look into the possibility of ice-skating and roller-skating at a future meeting. The group decided not to participate in the Christmas parade.

Kaleb Gordon gave a talk about chickens. Nichole Benz did a demonstration on how to paint ceramics.

Kaleb and Tate Gordon provided the refreshments.

Adrienne, Brook and Sheldon will do talks and demonstrations at the next meeting, which will be at 2 p.m. Jan. 5 in the Extension office.

[Nichole Benz, reporter]

Honors & Awards

[DEC. 2, 2002]  The ag issues team and the food science and technology team of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter were selected as state winners in recent competition.

The five members of the ag issues team, Matthew Wrage, Nick Alberts, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert and Kory Leesman, presented pros and cons on the topic of "Upgrading the Locks and Dams on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers." The participants role-played the major constituents involved in this issue. The team also met recently with U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood concerning the issue.

[Photos provided by Hartem FFA]
[Left to right:  Kory Leesman, Nick Alberts, Kyle Hoerbert, Rep. LaHood, Brittney Kavanaugh, Alyssa Moehring and Matthew Wrage]

As state winners, the team will now represent the Illinois FFA Association at the 2003 National FFA Convention. This is the third state-winning team competing in the Ag Issues Career Development Event for the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter. 

[News release]

[to top of second column in this section]

[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA ag issues team, which won in state competition:  (left to right) Matthew Wrage, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert, Kory Leesman and Nick Alberts] 

[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA state champion team in food science and technology are Alyssa Moehring, Krista Ubbenga, Natalie Coers and Brittney Kavanaugh with Drew Dediraemaker, state FFA president.]

[NOV. 13, 2002]  Logan County had its annual 4-H Achievement Night on Nov. 7 at the Lincoln Park District Rec Center. Approximately 115 4-H members, leaders and families came to congratulate the award recipients.

[to top of second column in this article]

Home and Family

[Logan County Extension news release
by Amy Hyde]

Ag Announcements

Olympia FFA Alumni news

[NOV. 8, 2002]  What do a tree, a chain saw and a TV have in common? The Olympia FFA Alumni chapter is selling raffle tickets for these items. The low-priced tickets provide a chance at a 36-inch Zenith color TV, a Stihl Farm Boss chain saw and a 1.5- to 3-inch diameter sunset red maple tree.

The chapter draws in members from McLean, Tazewell, Woodford, DeWitt and Logan counties.

Proceeds from the raffle will help support the agriculture program of the Olympia School District.

The drawing for the items will be Jan. 11, 2003, which is the tentative date for the FFA alumni banquet.

For more information on purchasing a raffle ticket or about the FFA Alumni chapter, contact any member of the chapter or call (309) 379-5911.

[News release]

Back to top