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Agriculture + fun = FFA

[OCT. 9, 2002]  Section 14 officers, along with Meagan Wells, the 2002-2003 Illinois FFA treasurer, conducted visits Sept. 30-Oct. 4 to chapters throughout the section.

As the group traveled to 11 schools, Meagan presented a program on the many opportunities available in the FFA. The section officers helped out by sharing their own experiences and informing the members about various conferences and activities. After the program, FFA members filled out a goal card, as Meagan challenged them to set their goals high and strive to reach them.

A week of chapter visits would not be complete without Leadership Training School. On Wednesday, Oct. 2, all of the Greenhand FFA members and chapter officers came together at Athens High School for a night of learning and fun. The group was honored to have Mr. Dave Mouser, a motivational speaker and past state officer, to kick off the night.

 

Then, the section officer team took the respective chapter officers into a training session on their duties as officers. Meagan Wells stayed with the Greenhand members for a motivational session. As everyone came back together, the section officer team had a little bit of fun distinguishing the differences in proper and improper official dress. A meal was served, and then Meagan Wells gave her keynote address.

The week of activities filled with chapter visits and leadership training was a great success. The officers wish all of the FFA members in Section 14 and across the state the best of luck in accomplishing their goals this year and in the future.

[FFA news release]

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[Photos provided by FFA]


[The Hartsburg-Emden FFA helped the Logan County Sheriff's Department with a bike rodeo at the Emden School. The Sheriff’s Department explained to the kids about proper safety when riding a bike on the road.]


[The Hartsburg-Emden chapter received a visit Monday from section officers and the FFA state treasurer.]


[Hartsburg-Emden FFA officers and Greenhands attended Leadership Training School at Athens High School.]


Weekly outlook

Carry-over stocks

[OCT. 8, 2002]  URBANA — The calculation of the availability of U.S. corn and soybeans for the current marketing year may change with subsequent changes in the projected crop sizes, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Strength of demand will be gauged by the rate of consumption as revealed in weekly, monthly and quarterly reports and by the development of Southern Hemisphere crops," said Darrel Good. "These developments will determine if current prices and current price projections are too high or too low. The prospects of small year-ending stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat — both in the United States and the world — may have more implications for prices next spring and summer than for current prices.

"Unless U.S. crop size is less than currently projected or demand is much stronger, supplies are probably large enough to satisfy consumption requirements for this marketing year at current prices. However, the drawdown in inventory that is currently expected would leave little or no reserves in case of a shortfall in production next year. Attention will first focus on growing conditions in South America and then to prospective acreage and weather conditions in the United States."

Good’s comments came as he reviewed the price implications of small carry-over stocks. The USDA projects that stocks of U.S. corn and wheat at the end of the current year will be the smallest in seven years. Stocks of soybeans are expected to be reduced to the lowest level in six years. Based on the projection of small inventories and on low ratios of projected stocks to projected consumption, some analysts believe that current prices are undervalued.

For example, Good noted, the projected stocks-to-use ratio for corn is 7.5 percent, the lowest since 1995-96 (5 percent), when the U.S. average farm price was $3.24. For the current year, the USDA projects the average price in a range of $2.35 to $2.75. For soybeans, the projected stocks-to-use ratio is about 6 percent, about the same as in 1996-97, when the U.S. average farm price was $7.35. For the current year, the USDA projects the average price in a range of $5.15 to $6.05.

"This type of comparison reveals the shortcomings of the simplistic approach of trying to explain average prices as a function of year-ending stocks," said Good. "In reality, consumption, stocks and price are simultaneously determined. Once crop size is known, maximum consumption during the crop year is determined, based on the assumption of a minimum level of year-ending stocks — probably between 4 and 5 percent of ‘normal’ annual consumption of corn and soybeans and about 15 percent for wheat.

 

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"The strength of demand, then, determines the level of price required to match available supplies with consumption. Strength of demand for U.S. crops is determined by a number of factors, including the number of livestock being fed, level of livestock prices, size of crop production in the rest of the world, exchange rates, processing capacity and price of processed goods, and U.S. and world economic conditions."

For corn, the current projection of crop size indicates that if year-ending stocks were reduced to about 5 percent of normal consumption (about 500 million bushels), there would be about 9.97 billion bushels of U.S. corn available for use during the current marketing year.

"The largest annual consumption ever experienced was the 9.817 billion bushels last year," said Good. "Unless demand is much stronger than currently anticipated, there is apparently an ample supply of U.S. corn at a ‘modest’ price."

For soybeans, the current U.S. production forecast suggests that consumption during the current year would be limited to about 2.724 million bushels if year-ending stocks were reduced to about 5 percent of "normal" consumption (145 million bushels). That level of consumption is 209 million bushels, or 7 percent, less than last year’s record consumption. The USDA expects that consumption will be reduced as a result of higher prices (an average of $5.15 to $6.05 compared to last year’s average of $4.35) and weaker demand for U.S. soybeans. Much of the expected weakness in demand is the result of the projection of a 240-million-bushel increase in South American soybean production in 2003.

For wheat, the USDA crop estimate suggests that consumption of U.S. wheat during the current marketing year would be limited to about 2.122 million bushels if year-ending stocks were reduced to 360 million bushels. That is 47 million (2 percent) less than consumption during the previous year and about 280 million (12 percent) less than the average consumption of about 2.4 billion bushels during the 1990s.

"Demand for U.S. wheat is expected to remain firm, due in part to unchanged production in the rest of the world," said Good. "The USDA expects that the reduction in consumption of U.S. wheat will be accomplished by higher prices — an average between $3.45 and $4.05 compared to last year’s average of $2.78."

[U of I news release]


Conference to address
agriculture’s past and future

[OCT. 3, 2002]  Conservation leaders and agricultural futurists will meet next week to discuss the future of agriculture and conservation in the country’s heartland. "The Changing Faces of Conservation and Agriculture — The Future of Working Lands" runs Oct. 8-10 at the Moline airport Holiday Inn.

The regional conference is sponsored by the Soil and Water Conservation Society, the SWCS; USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, the NRCS; and other conservation organizations.

Special guests from across the country will share data and perspectives as they debate the challenges production agriculture and conservation of soil and water resources face. Discussions will include:

•  Shifting history of conservation and agriculture

•  Sustainability in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

•  Relationship of agriculture and rural communities

•  Conservation delivery systems

•  Science behind changes in agriculture and conservation

•  Wildlife and animal agricultural issues

The conference will include general and concurrent breakout sessions where lively discussions and information exchange can occur.

"With guest speakers such as Merlin Bartz, special assistant to USDA’s undersecretary for natural resources and environment, there’s tremendous opportunity for conservation professionals and agricultural leaders to gain new insights that will impact agriculture for generations to come," says NRCS Illinois State Conservationist Bill Gradle.

 

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SWCS President Craig Cox, NRCS Regional Conservationist Charles Whitmore, EPA Regional Administrator Jim Gulliford and agricultural futurist Bob Treadway will also address conference attendees.

The conference includes tours of the John Deere East Moline Harvester Works and the Mississippi backwaters, as well as Lock and Dam 15.

SWCS fosters the science and art of soil, water and related natural resource management to achieve sustainability. Members from Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin will attend the conference, and interested agricultural producers and landowners and the public are also encouraged to attend. Registration is $125 for SWCS members and $200 for nonmembers (one-year membership included).

Call (515) 284-4262 or visit http://news.swcs.org/e_article000041450.cfm for more details.

[USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service news release]

 


2003 crop rotations examined

[OCT. 3, 2002]  URBANA — Illinois farmers should revisit their crop rotation decisions for 2003 following this year’s dramatic increase in market prices for corn, soybeans and wheat, said a University of Illinois Extension farm management specialist.

"Planting more corn and more wheat while planting fewer soybeans may be economically advisable for producers," said Gary Schnitkey, who recently completed a study entitled "Crop Rotations for 2003: More Wheat and Corn?" in the "Farm Economics: Facts and Opinions" series.

Schnitkey’s study examined yields and direct costs for Illinois farmers and revenue less direct costs under different price scenarios. He cautioned that farmers should not totally rely on averages shown in the study. "Farmers should use their own yield and direct costs for double-crop soybeans," he emphasized.

In the study, the 2001 loan rate scenario has prices of $1.95 for corn, $5.45 for soybeans and $2.60 for wheat. These prices reflect average Illinois loan rates under the 1996 Farm Bill that were good planning prices from years between 1999 through 2002.

The 2003 contract price scenario used in the study represents estimated harvest-time prices for 2003 crops. Estimates were made using futures prices as of September 2002. This scenario uses prices of $2.30 for corn, $5.15 for soybeans and $3.30 for wheat.

 

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"Revenue less direct costs for these price scenarios on high-productivity farmland show soybeans having the highest return rate under the 2001 loan rate," said Schnitkey. "However, relative returns under 2003 prices change dramatically. Corn following soybeans has the higher per acre return followed by wheat. The return for soybeans is the lowest.

"This suggests that for high-productivity farmland, planting more corn and more wheat and less soybeans may be an economical move. A similar result occurs when figures for low-productivity farmland are applied to the model."

The complete report plus the "2002 Illinois Crop Budgets," which provided much of the data, can be found online at: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu.

[U of I news release]


Scoop on the harvest:
better than expected

[OCT. 2, 2002]  Grain trucks and wagons are rolling in to area elevators, and, in general, corn yields are better than expected, say area elevator managers.

On Tuesday Hugh Whalen, general manager of East Lincoln Farmer’s Grain Company, said the corn harvest was 45 percent to 50 percent done in the immediate Lincoln area, not so far along in others.

"We think the harvest overall is about 35 percent done in our territory," Whalen said. "As you get over to the east, in the Beason area, it’s not so far along. Some corn was planted late because of the wet spring."

 


[
East Lincoln elevator manager Hugh Whalen talks with Lincoln area farmer Carl Schwantz while Schwantz’s son dumps a load of corn.]

The East Lincoln elevator serves the northwest quarter of Logan County, including Lincoln, Lawndale, Atlanta, Beason and Johnston Siding.

"Yields are generally good," Whalen added. "Some are below average and some above average, but all in all the crop is fairly similar to last year’s. It’s not a record-breaking year, but it’s much better than the yield in some areas east and south of us. We got lucky with rain at the right time.

"The quality of the corn looks pretty good, too. For the most part, producers are pleased with their crop."

The corn coming into East Lincoln is fairly dry, with 18 percent to 19 percent moisture content, and some is even lower. Sunshine and wind the last few days helped dry it. Most elevators store corn at 14 percent, he said.

"Farmers are harvesting quickly because they want to get the corn out while it is still standing and still dry."

Paul Seaman of the Emden Farmer’s Grain Company reported Tuesday that corn in his area is 60 percent done, with variable yields. So far he’s heard of everything from 130 bushels to the acre to 200 bushels, with the majority in the 175 to 180 range. In sandier ground, the yields aren’t quite as good.

"Yields are better than last year. One producer said he’s gong to be 15 percent better than last year, when hail reduced the crop in that area," Seaman said.

However, corn in that area is coming in with a higher moisture content than producers would like, anywhere from 19 percent to 23 percent, Seaman said.

"We caught some showers in the middle of August," he said, "but those showers really saved the crop for guys who had to plant beans late because of the wet spring.

"Most of our producers are pleasantly surprised by the yield, especially since we didn’t have optimum conditions," he added.

The Emden elevator serves the northwest part of Logan County and a small part of southern Tazewell County.

 


[
Elevator superintendent Doug Conley rakes beans through the grill in the floor into the pit below.]

"We’ve got just over 50 percent of our corn in," said Jeff Duckworth, general manager at Hartsburg Grain Company.

"Corn harvest has gone pretty well, with an unobstructed three weeks to get it in. The yields are pretty decent, a little better than last year."

"Corn is wetter, though, because of late planting due to spring rains. A good portion of our crop was planted the last of May or the first of June instead of the first of May. The moisture content is 20 to 22 percent, when it’s usually 17 or 18 percent by the first of October, so we’re doing a lot of drying."

The Hartsburg area was lucky this year, Duckworth said. "South and east of here, yields fall off pretty hard, all the way to Ohio and Tennessee. We’re pretty close to the edge of where yields turn decent."

The Elkhart Grain Company is about halfway done with corn, according to general manager Don Ludwig.

"The yield on corn is better than we probably could have expected, and better than last year, when the average was only 151 bushels per acre.

 

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"The yield is extremely variable, from the 120s to the 180s. Overall my guess would be that we’ll end up in the 160s, which is average in our area. We would get very excited at yields of 180 bushels per acre," he said.

The moisture content of corn in the Elkhart area is variable, too. "We had 14.7 percent for some April-planted corn, but we have some corn at over 22 percent. Some corn planted late hasn’t been harvested yet; a lot was planted the end of May and early June. That will probably come in on the wet side, in the low 20s."

Ludwig said the southwest part of the county didn’t get as much rain as some other areas.

"The Burton View and Emden areas had better rain than we did. And when we were getting two-tenths or three-tenths of an inch, Lincoln was getting eight- or nine-tenths. But we were very fortunate we got what we did. The rain we got in mid-July was a lifesaver for late-planted corn," he said.

"We are just on the edge of the territory where yields are good. They drop off just east of here. Our corn is better than corn on the other side of Decatur.

"Most producers are very, very pleased with the corn yields, not because it’s the best they’ve ever had, but because it’s better than they expected," Ludwig said.

Mark Hunsley at Burtonview Co-op, on the west side of Lincoln, reported Tuesday that about half the corn harvest in his area is in, and beans are just starting. Corn is drying quickly, coming in with 18 percent to 19 percent moisture, he said.

"The harvest is as good as last year, if not a little better. We’ve had good rain; every time it rained around here, we got rain. Our crop is not a record-breaker, but it’s good."

 


[Photos by Joan Crabb]
[The East Lincoln Farmer’s Grain Company elevator at Kruger Road is ready for trucks and wagons to come in filled with grain.]

The soybean crop is just starting to come in at East Lincoln, Whalen said, and if early beans are any indication, the harvest should be as good as it was last year. About 15 percent of the crop is in.

Seaman said about 30 percent to 35 percent of the beans in the Emden area are in. He said it’s hard to say how the yield is, but it’s probably going to be better than last year. So far it looks "decent," in the mid-40s to lower 50s. Sixty bushels per acre is a very good yield.

At the Hartsburg elevator, Duckworth is seeing some beans that aren’t looking good. "Late rains seem to have brought some disease in the beans. So far yields are variable."

The bean harvest has just barely started in the Elkhart area, Ludwig said.

Prices for both corn and beans are not as high as they were when the harvest started, but they’re better than they were last year, according to Whalen.

Corn prices are about 50 cents higher than last year. On Tuesday corn was at $2.43 cents a bushel, he said. Bean prices have dropped in the last few days, down to $5.22 per bushel. That’s better than last year, but not what most people would consider a good price, he said.

"When the harvest first started, corn prices were up in the $2.70s," Seaman said. They were in the $2.60s the first part of September, but we got a cash bid today for only $2.41.

"Beans took a big hit, too. The market slipped 60 cents in the last three weeks. Not many people are buying beans just now. Buyers have bought more corn than beans," Seaman said.

"Good market demand could raise the prices later in the year, but it’s fair to say we don’t expect to see any huge surprises," Ludwig said.

[Joan Crabb]


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