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Features
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Weekly outlook
Hog
market
[APRIL
8, 2003]
URBANA -- The continued
financial discouragement in hog prices needs to stimulate more
producers to reduce their herd sizes, allowing for even larger
reductions in the national breeding herd this year, said a Purdue
University Extension marketing specialist.
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"Unfortunately, it appears that the
industry is slow to adjust hog numbers downward at this time, likely
due to the concentrated industry structure and the newness of
capital investments made over the last 10 years," said Chris Hurt.
"In past hog cycles, it has taken around 1½ years from a period of
losses until the industry reduced production and returned to
profits.
"If the timing is similar on this
cycle, this would mean we are just entering the time when higher
prices would be expected, with the highest prices and profits not
anticipated until 2004."
Hurt's comments came as he reviewed the
hog market, which he described as "failing one price test after
another so far this year."
The USDA's "March Hogs and Pigs" report
provided renewed hope for higher prices in the futures market, yet
cash prices remained stuck in the lower $30s one week after the
release. Losses continue to mount, as the market must now rely on
the traditional spring price rally to salvage a return to a
break-even situation.
"Needless to say, producers need to see
the hog market pass this test," Hurt noted.
The March inventory report from USDA
indicated that producers across the country have reduced the size of
their breeding herds by 4.5 percent. Given the large financial
losses over the past year, even greater reductions in the herd can
be expected throughout 2003.
"Farrowing intentions for this spring
and summer are down at least 3 percent, which should reduce the
number of market animals through next winter," said Hurt. "The
direction is correct, but there remains a question of whether the
magnitude of the reduction is large enough to push hog prices back
into profitable ranges."
Minnesota was the only major production
state to have an increase in the size of its breeding herd, up 4
percent. Oklahoma and Texas breeding herds remained unchanged.
Illinois and Iowa herds were down 7 percent, Indiana was down 6
percent, Nebraska was down 4 percent, and both Missouri and Ohio
were off 3 percent.
"Producer decisions to decrease their
herds may have been influenced in the eastern Corn Belt by the small
corn crop -- 121 bushels per acre average in Indiana and only 88
bushels per acre in Ohio," said Hurt. "However, the record corn crop
in the western Corn Belt does not explain large decreases in the
Iowa herd, where yields average 165 bushes per acre."
[to top of second column in
this article]
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The market herd was reported to be down
only 1.6 percent. There is some hopeful news in the weight
breakdowns, as it appears that the number available for slaughter
should soon begin to drop. The 180-pound-and-over category was more
than 1 percent greater than last year at this time. However, most of
these hogs should have been marketed by early April.
Pigs that will come to market in April
through August were down from 2 percent to 2.5 percent. If so, this
could finally mean that slaughter supplies will soon be coming down
and provide the needed stimulus for rising prices, Hurt noted.
"Producers have been operating at a
loss for the last 13 months, dating back to March of 2002," said
Hurt. "Those losses were the most severe in the last quarter of
2002, when they averaged an estimated $21 per head for average
production costs. Losses were more moderate in the first quarter of
2003 but still were about $9 per head. Low hog prices helped packers
to their best margins in four years during this period."
Given the larger-than-expected supplies
so far this year, pork production for the entire year may be down
only 1 percent. However, that means about a 2 percent reduction for
the remainder of the year. With continued small beef supplies and
the potential for a recovering economy, hog prices are expected to
average $37 to $38 for the year. The highest prices are still
expected to come this spring, when daily highs could move into the
lower to mid-$40s.
Late summer prices are expected to drop
back toward the higher $30s. Prices in the mid-$30s should be
expected for late in the year, with prices moving into the higher
$30s for the first quarter of 2004.
"Moderation in costs of production
should also be expected over the next 12 months," said Hurt.
"Interest rates remain low and could even dip somewhat before
increasing late in 2003. Fuel and energy prices are likely to move
lower with the resolution of the military conflict in Iraq and the
increase of oil supplies from that country into the world market.
"Feed prices
face the uncertainty of the coming growing season, but a 'normal'
weather situation in the United States could lower both corn and
meal prices somewhat, although dramatic reductions in corn prices
should not be expected at this time."
[University
of Illinois news release]
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Gardeners and farmers getting
the jump on spring planting
By John Fulton
[APRIL
7, 2003]
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Master
Gardener plant sale
One of the U of I Extension Master
Gardener fund-raisers will be coming our way on Saturday, April 26.
The sale is scheduled for 9 a.m. to noon (or sellout) at the
Extension office, 980 N. Postville Drive in Lincoln, on the
northwest corner of the fairgrounds. The Master Gardener group will
offer perennials, annuals and houseplants this year. Of course you
can talk to a Master Gardener as well, if you can get one pulled
aside!
Composting self-study course
There have been many requests for
composting information over the winter. In response, we will be
offering the Home Study Composting Course. There are six sessions
total. To participate, just send us your name and address with a
check for $5 to cover the postage cost. We will send you two lessons
per week for three weeks. At that time you should be able to
construct your own compost bin and make it work properly.
If you would like to see a large-scale
compost system in action, you may visit one at the west end of the
Extension office building (located on the fairgrounds side of the
fence) or at Jefferson School's garden in Lincoln.
Field
operations
With a few days of drier soil
conditions, some field work has been occurring in Logan County. Most
of the field work has been fertilizer application, leveling off
ground and some limited spraying. Of course thoughts have popped up
about planting corn, but what are the advantages and the
disadvantages?
The primary advantage is getting corn
planting completed by the recommended date so that there isn't a
penalty for late planting. There is also a penalty for early
planting, but it isn't as great as planting on the late side. April
10 planting dates carry about a 6 percent yield reduction. Optimal
planting time is April 25-30, with very slight reductions in
potential yield for planting April 20-May 4. Optimal plant
populations are between 30,000 and 32,500.
[to top of second column in
this article]
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There are some other factors to
consider when planting early: Herbicides and insecticides are
probably not going to stay active as long as we think they are; seed
in the ground takes longer to germinate and is exposed to more
secondary insect damage; stands may emerge more unevenly; and the
risk for replant goes up.
The major advantage to early planting
is wrapping things up in a timely fashion. This has to be weighed
against the other factors.
Extension Week
The West Central Region has designated
next week as Extension Week. It is a time for us to be grateful for
many things that have happened through the years and continue to
happen with the great support that is provided in our community.
Many of University of Illinois
Extension's programs aren't always associated with Extension. Some
of those programs are 4-H, the Family Nutrition Program, Master
Gardeners, and of course agriculture and horticulture.
Since the official beginning of
Extension, with the Federal Smith-Lever Act in 1914, and the
beginnings of Extension in Logan County in 1918, the University of
Illinois Extension
system has continued to bring research-based
information to the local people. Your continued support throughout
the year has made it all possible.
To highlight the week, I thought it
might be good to have a little contest. The office will provide
awards to at least 10 individuals who
send in a list of "Farm
Advisers" and "Home Advisers" for Logan County since the Extension
started.
Logan County Extension
980
N. Postville Drive
Lincoln, IL 62656
Fax:
(217) 735-5837
E-mail:
logan_co@uiuc.edu
[John
Fulton]
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Youth to salute
4-H at the state Capitol
[APRIL
7, 2003]
SPRINGFIELD -- More
than 2,500 Illinois 4-H youth and family members will participate in
the seventh annual 4-H Legislative Connection at the state Capitol
on April 15. During the event, 4-H youth will meet their state
lawmakers and learn more about the legislative process.
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Throughout the first floor of
the Capitol, 4-H exhibits will be on display. The "Best of the Best"
4-H exhibition will feature nearly 800 Superior Award-winning
exhibits from last summer's Illinois State Fair.
Educational workshops and tours
are also included in the day's activities.
The Illinois 4-H Club
Presidents Invitational Conference will run in conjunction with
Legislative Connection.
An action-packed rally in the
Capitol rotunda and a special luncheon program will celebrate
achievements of more than 400,000 Illinois 4-H members and leaders.
The 4-H Legislative Connection
is a nationally recognized program, cited twice by the USDA for
national program of excellence. It has been replicated in 12 states.
Nationally, 4-H is the largest out-of-school educational program for
youth and is part of U of I Extension programs.
[4-H
news release provided by Amy Hyde of the University of Illinois
Extension in Logan County] |
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In Southeast Asia, hunger rationalizes benefits of biotechnology
risks
[APRIL
4, 2003]
URBANA -- While well-fed countries engage in
conversations about whether or not biotechnology should be used to
prevent pests and boost the world's food production, developing
countries in Southeast Asia express optimism toward the technology
in hopes of saving their starving populations, according to a
University of Illinois social scientist.
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"In southeast Asia,
key stakeholders believe that the benefits of biotechnology outweigh
the risks," said Napoleon Juanillo, social scientist in the College
of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at U of I.
"They have many more mouths to feed than we do in the United States,
so they are focused more on feeding the hungry than engaging in
discourse about the moral and ethical dimensions. Although moral and
ethical concerns are expressed, for the most part, that is an elite
discourse and one they do not have time to engage in."
Juanillo recently
completed a collaborative survey in five Southeast Asian countries:
Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. With help
from approximately 250 university scientists in those countries, he
surveyed urban consumers, businessmen, Extension workers, farmer
leaders, religious leaders, journalists, policymakers and scientists
about their opinions and perceptions on biotechnology.
"Those who
participated in the survey are the key stakeholders of these
countries," said Juanillo. "But, they are also rational people who
are looking realistically at their starving population and seeing
the benefits of biotechnology as a way to feed the masses.
"Anything new and
promising is welcome news to them. They seem to be saying, 'Our
people are starving and you're telling me to consider the risks?'
It's an elite discourse."
By way of comparison,
as of July 2002, the United States had a population of a little over
280 million. Indonesia is about three times the size of Texas and
has a population of over 231 million. The total population of the
five Southeast Asian countries Juanillo surveyed is estimated at 481
million people.
"The message to
Illinois farmers is that Southeast Asia is a big market for corn and
soybeans and there is not much opposition to biotech products in
those countries," said Juanillo.
Currently, Vietnam
experiments heavily with biotech products. Indonesia grows bitotech
cotton. The Philippines recently approved field testing of biotech
corn, while the Malaysian government is pushing for more
experimentation and Thailand is just beginning experimentation.
"Although fear of the
unknown typically drives up concern, the people of Southeast Asia
are hopeful of anything new that will help their country," said
Juanillo. "They welcome any technology that will bring more
prosperity to their country. Developing countries are always behind,
and they look at biotechnology as a potential tool to help them
catch up.
[to top of second column in
this article]
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Juanillo said that
there is a misconception that these Southeast Asian countries are
just growing rice. "They're a tropical explosion. And, if
biotechnology can help them to develop more varieties of mangoes or
papayas, that's a good thing to them. Anything that can help them
produce better crops, they're in favor of."
It all began with a
talk at a conference in Thailand in 1999 about the role that culture
and other social variables play in the public's perception of the
risks of biotechnology. Napoleon Juanillo was asked by the
Department of Agriculture in the Philippines to give a similar talk
in the Philippines. This snowballed into more speaking engagements.
With assistance from
the International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-Biotech
Applications and the International Rice Research Institute, Juanillo
was able to coordinate studies in the five Southeast Asian
countries. The logistics alone involved monumental
orchestration. The survey first had to be translated into three
other languages besides English -- Thai, Bahasa Indonesia and
Vietnamese.
"I made one trip to
Bangkok where the entire team gathered in order to describe the
protocol for administering the surveys so that all of the data would
be compatible. Later we met in Malaysia to look at the progress. The
ISAAA served as coordinator of the project, and it was my job to
analyze the data collected," said Juanillo.
Juanillo said that
the project was partially funded by Hewlett Foundation, the
University of Illinois, the Illinois Council on Food and
Agricultural Research, and the agricultural universities in the five
Southeast Asian countries in which the studies took place.
"These universities provided manpower
consisting of geneticists, plant pathologists and molecular
biologists who are interested in what people think and whether the
work they are doing with biotechnology is relevant," said Juanillo.
The survey was patterned after the Eurobarometer public perception
surveys on biotechnology.
[University
of Illinois press release]
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Ag
community invests in the
future through scholarships
[APRIL
1, 2003]
The Lincoln/Logan County
Chamber of Commerce recently sponsored its fourth annual Ag Day
breakfast as part of the National Agriculture Week observance.
Agriculture community leaders, businessmen, industry leaders and
students gathered at the new American Legion Hall in Lincoln. This
year's breakfast was themed "Planting the Seeds for Progress."
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2003 Ag
Day scholarship recipients
The highlight of the annual breakfast
is the presentation of the Ag Day scholarships. A total of $4,000 in
scholarships was awarded to students currently studying or planning
to further their studies in agriculture. This amount is double from
the first Ag Day four years ago.
Blane Olson, a senior at Mount Pulaski
High School, and Abrigail Sasse, a senior at Lincoln Community High
School, were awarded $1,000 scholarships. (Click
here for information about the students and a picture posted
previously.)
Casey Davis, Natalie Coers, Kent
Leesman and Jason Wrage were awarded $500 scholarships. (Click
here for more information about the students.)
Those in attendance at the Ag Day
breakfast also heard about the exciting research projects being
conducted at Washington University by former scholarship recipient
Elizabeth Stoll.
[to top of second column in this
article]
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Attendees also heard keynote speaker
Dr. Steve Sonka, director of the National Soybean Research
Laboratory and soybean industry chair in agricultural strategy,
speak on the future of agriculture. Sonka, a renowned agribusiness
academic, described innovative university research being conducted.
Dan Kelley, chairman of the board and president of Growmark also
gave comments on the future trends, and Rep. Rich Brauer provided
insight into state agriculture programs and incentives.
Larry
Huelskoetter, committee chairman for the breakfast, emphasizes that
the scholarship program, free breakfast and other ag-related
programs for the community would not be possible without the
generous support of local businesses. This year's sponsors includes
financial institutions, ag-related businesses, grain elevators, car
and agriculture implement dealerships, and farm supply stores.
[Press release] |
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Hartsburg-Emden FFA members visit state Capitol
[APRIL
1, 2003]
In conjunction with
Agriculture Day at the Capitol in Springfield on March 26, seven
Hartsburg-Emden FFA members spent part of the day visiting with
their state legislators, Rep. Bill Mitchell and Sen. Bill Brady.
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Annie Sanders, Nicole Buse,
Blaine Hellman, Jacob Moehring, Scott Ubbenga, Curtis Conrady and
Kasey Hoerbert also had the opportunity to sit in on a press
conference where Senate Republicans were stating their opposition
for reinstating the farm equipment sales tax.
Lastly, these FFA members assisted in delivering lunches and
agricultural commodity baskets to all legislators.
[FFA news release] |
(Left to right) Jacob Moehring, Sen. Bill Brady, Kasey Hoerbert,
Annie Sanders, Nicole Buse, Curtis Conrady, Scott Ubbenga, Blaine
Hellman and Rep. Bill Mitchell. |
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Honors
& Awards
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Ag Day
scholarship winners
[MARCH
25, 2003]
Six
area students received a total award of $4,000 in local Ag Day
scholarships -- double the amount awarded four years ago on the
first Ag Day.
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$1,000 scholarship winners
Blane Olson -- senior at Mount Pulaski High School; active with FFA, National Honor Society, basketball;
will attend Lake Land Community College in the fall and then
University of Illinois or Illinois State to pursue a degree in ag
business; hopes to return to
family farm to produce soybeans and corn and expand swine operation
Abrigail Sasse -- senior at Lincoln Community High School; active with speech, 4-H, National Honor Society, band, community
volunteer; will attend U of I and major in animal science; hopes to have a
veterinary practice with small and large animals in Logan County
[to top of second column in
this article]
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[photo courtesy of Bobbi Abbott]
Abrigail Sasse and Blane Olson
$500 scholarship winners
Casey Davis
-- junior at the U of I;
majoring in animal science, pre-veterinary studies
Natalie Coers -- senior at Hartsburg-Emden High School; heading to U of I to
major in ag education and communications, minor in horticulture
Kent Leesman --
2001 scholarship recipient; attending U of I;
majoring in crop science and agribusiness
Jason Wrage -- college senior recently accepted into the U of I College of
Veterinary Medicine; goal is to have a rural
mixed veterinary practice
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Ag
Announcements
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