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Weekly outlook

Corn, soybean prices

[APRIL 15, 2003]  URBANA -- Recent price strength in the soybean market is associated with a continuation of a high rate of exports and exports sales and some late-season concerns about wet weather in parts of South America, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"In the case of corn, it would appear that prospects for ample year-ending stocks and an increase in harvested acreage of corn for grain in 2003 would be sufficient to keep corn prices in a relatively narrow range through August," said Darrel Good. "However, the trading range in December 2003 corn futures is also relatively low, at 34 cents. History would suggest an increase in the trading range of December futures prior to expiration of the contract and provides some support for the possibility of a new high in that contract.

"At the same time, that contract is currently trading only about 3 cents above the life-of-contract low. Could be another interesting summer."

Good's comments came as he reviewed corn and soybean prices in the wake of USDA reports. The soybean market had a two-day reaction to the generally negative information in the USDA's "March Grain Stocks" and "Prospective Plantings" reports and then proceeded to move to the highest level of the year.

May 2003 futures traded to $6.08, and the average cash price in central Illinois reached $5.96.

"That price is 2 cents above the 2001-02 marketing year high and is the highest cash price since the 1997-98 marketing year," Good noted.

Last week, the USDA raised the export projection for the current marketing year by 35 million bushels. At 995 million bushels (1.005 billion if the additional residual use projection is included) the current projection compares to an early-season projection of only 800 million bushels. USDA reports show current exports and export commitment above the level of a year ago, when shipments for the year reached 1.063 billion bushels.

"Part of the impact of larger-than-expected exports of U.S. soybeans has been offset by the smaller-than-expected domestic crush," said Good. "The USDA now projects the domestic crush at 1.62 billion bushels, which is 80 million less than crushed last year and 55 million less than projected last fall. The slowdown in the crush since January has been primarily the result of weaker export demand for soybean meal."

The USDA now projects year-ending stocks of U.S. soybeans at 145 million bushels, 63 million below the level of stocks at the beginning of the year. Stocks will be at the lowest level in six years and the second lowest level in 26 years. The smaller inventory in the United States is offset by the expectations of large production and a marginal increase in stocks in South America.

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"Even with the recent price activity, the trading range in the cash price of soybeans in central Illinois since Sept. 1, 2002 has been relatively narrow," said Good. "The range of 95 cents, if it persisted through August, would be the smallest marketing-year trading range in 11 years and the third smallest range in 30 years.

"The same pattern is evident in the November 2003 futures contract. The trading range for that contract to date is 90 cents. Since 1972, the life-of-contract trading range was 91 cents on two occasions, 1972 and 1986. After that, the smallest range was $1.17 for the 1995 contract. With inventory at a very low level and indications that U.S. producers will reduce soybean acreage in 2003, a continuation of volatile price behavior should be expected. In the short run, a new marketing-year high might be expected. New lows before the end of the summer would likely require a steep drop in exports and a very favorable growing season."

Corn prices were generally higher in the week following the "friendly" USDA reports on March 31. The average spot cash price of corn in central Illinois moved from $2.26 on March 28 to $2.40 on April 7. May 2003 futures moved from a close of $2.2775 on March 28 to a high of $2.4525 on April 8. The price strength was relatively short-lived, however, as a slow rate of exports and prospects for ample year-ending stocks pushed prices lower last week.

On April 10, the USDA released its monthly projections of supply and use. For corn, the projection of domestic use was increased by 70 million bushels, but the projection of marketing year exports was reduced by 75 million bushels. Exports are now projected at 1.675 billion bushels, 325 million less than the early-season projection.

"At the projected level, exports would be at the lowest level in five years," said Good.

The recent corn price activity left prices within the trading range established since September 2002. The marketing-year range for the spot cash price of corn in central Illinois has been 56½ cents.

"That range is relatively small, but the range over the past 29 years has been 60 cents or less in eight other years," said Good.

[University of Illinois news release]

• Farmers urged to safeguard anhydrous from drug dealers
  (Posted April 14 on LDN Top Stories page)

Consider electrical hazards
during spring planting season

[APRIL 14, 2003]  URBANA -- Many farm workers are killed each year when their farm equipment makes contact with overhead power lines. These tragic accidents are preventable. Before heading back into the fields, Safe Electricity urges farm workers to review farm activities and work practices that take place around power lines.

"Make sure everyone who works on the farm knows the location of power lines and keeps farm equipment at least 10 feet away from them," said Molly Hall, director of Safe Electricity, a statewide electrical safety public awareness program.

"Keep in mind, the minimum 10-foot distance is a 360-degree rule below, to the side and above lines. It may take a little more time, but ensuring proper clearance can save lives."

"Many farm electrical accidents that involve power line contact happen when loading or preparing to transport equipment to fields or while performing maintenance or repairs on farm machinery near power lines," said Bob Aherin, University of Illinois agricultural safety specialist. "It can be difficult to estimate distance, and sometimes a power line is closer than it looks. A spotter or someone with a broader view can help."

Today's larger farms require transporting tractors and equipment to fields several miles away. Before transit, avoid raising the arms of planters, cultivators or truck beds near power lines.

Be aware of increased height when loading and transporting larger modern tractors. Also, many tractors are now equipped with radios and communications systems and have antennas extending from the cab to 15 feet above the ground that could make contact with power lines.

Some other equipment safety considerations:

* Always lower portable augers or elevators to their lowest possible level -- under 14 feet -- before moving or transporting; use care when raising them.

* When moving large equipment or high loads near a power line, always use a spotter or someone to help make certain that contact is not made with a line.

* Never attempt to raise or move a power line to clear a path.

As in any outdoor work, be careful not to raise any equipment such as ladders, poles or rods into power lines.  Remember, nonmetallic materials such as lumber, tree limbs, tires, ropes and hay will conduct electricity depending on dampness and dust and dirt contamination.  Do not try to clear storm-damage debris and limbs near or touching power lines or near fallen lines.

The overhead electric wires aren't the only electrical contact that can result in a serious incident.  Pole guy wires are grounded to the neutral; but, when one of the guy wires is broken, it can cause an electric current disruption. This can make those neutral wires anything but harmless. If you hit a guy wire and break it, call the utility to fix it. Don't do it yourself. When dealing with electrical poles and wires, always call the electric utility.

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"It's also important for operators of farm equipment or vehicles to know what to do if the vehicle comes in contact with a power line," Hall said. "It's almost always best to stay in the cab and call for help. Warn others who may be nearby to stay away, and wait until the electric utility arrives to make sure power to the line is cut off."

"If the power line is energized and you step outside, your body becomes the path and electrocution is the result," Aherin said. "Even if a power line has landed on the ground, there is still the potential for the area nearby to be energized. Stay inside the vehicle unless there's fire or imminent risk of fire."

In that case, the proper action is to jump, not step, with both feet hitting the ground at the same time. Do not allow any part of your body to touch the equipment and the ground at the same time. Continue to shuffle or hop to safety, keeping both feet together as you leave the area.

Once you get away from the equipment, never attempt to get back on or even touch the equipment. Many electrocutions occur when the operator dismounts and, realizing nothing has happened, tries to get back on the equipment.

Farmers may want to consider moving or burying power lines around buildings or busy pathways where many farm activities take place. If planning a new outbuilding or farm structure, contact your power supplier for information on minimum safe clearances from overhead and underground power lines.

For more information on farm and home electrical safety, visit www.SafeElectricity.org.  Spanish versions of farm electric safety information are also available on this website.

The Safe Electricity program was created by a coalition of nearly three dozen organizations, including the University of Illinois, rural electric cooperatives and investor-owned electric utilities from throughout the state. All are members of the Illinois Electric Council, a not-for-profit organization dedicated to promoting electric safety and efficiency.

[University of Illinois news release]

2002 farm income

[APRIL 12, 2003]  URBANA -- The average farmer's return for labor and management dropped $3,700 in 2002 from the 2001 figure and in some regions registered in negative figures, according to a University of Illinois Extension study. Labor and management earnings averaged $12,976 in 2002 compared with $16,712 in 2002.

Operators' net farm income, another measure of farm earnings, did not meet family living requirements in many cases, which likely resulted in a decline in net worth for many farm families.

"Higher grain prices and slightly lower costs in 2002 did not offset lower corn yields and less government payments," explained Dale Lattz, U of I Extension farm management specialist, who conducted the study along with Charles Cagely, state coordinator of the Illinois Farm Business Farm Management Association. "Lower livestock returns also contributed to lower incomes on farms producing livestock. Changes in government farm programs and higher grain prices sharply reduced the amount of government farm program payments producers received in 2002."

The study was based on records from farms participating in the FBFM record-keeping and business analysis program.

"Average farm operator returns for labor and management on 3,165 Illinois farms varied considerably between geographic areas and decreased slightly in 2002 compared to returns experienced by producers in 2001," said Lattz.

"Farm earnings were highest in the west central and central areas of the state. Earnings were lowest in southern and northeastern Illinois, where dry weather reduced corn and soybean yields. Producers in far southern Illinois experienced large losses due to very low yields caused by drought conditions last summer."

The average return for a farmer's labor and management, a figure that might be thought of as a "wage," was $20,000 to $25,000 in central Illinois, minus $10,000 to minus $15,000 in southern Illinois and minus $60,000 to minus $70,000 in far southeastern Illinois. Northeastern Illinois also experienced negative earnings. Labor and management returns averaged $15,000 to $20,000 in northwestern Illinois.

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Lattz explained that the net farm income figure results from combining the labor-management return with a reasonable charge for the operator's debt-free capital invested in machinery, equipment, land and inventories. The latter figure averaged $14,228 for the state as a whole and when added to the labor-management return gives a net farm income figure of $27,204, a decline from 2001's $33,396.

"This figure, plus any non-farm income, is what the operator has available for family living expenses, income and Social Security taxes and to repay long-term debt," Lattz explained. "Family living studies indicate that on average it takes about $50,000 to $55,000 to meet family living expenses and to pay income and Social Security taxes. The average net farm income for 2002 is below the average family living requirements, resulting in a decline in net worth for the farm enterprise."

Non-farm income can cushion this decline or even result in an increase in net worth, depending on the level of non-farm income.

Returns for a farmer's labor and management were highest on grain farms, followed by dairy, beef and hog farms. The average figure was $15,677 on grain farms, $12,760 on dairy farms, a negative $11,509 on beef farms, and a negative $15,839 on hog farms.

A detailed study of the results can be found at the U of I's farmdoc website:
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/
newsletters/fefo03_07/fefo03_07.html.

More information about the FBFM record-keeping and business analysis program can be obtained by contacting the local FBFM specialist, local U of I Extension offices or at the FBFM website, http://www.fbfm.org.

[University of Illinois news release]

• Repairing storm damage to trees
  (Article from Michigan State University Extension)

[APRIL 7, 2003] 

Master Gardener plant sale

One of the U of I Extension Master Gardener fund-raisers will be coming our way on Saturday, April 26. The sale is scheduled for 9 a.m. to noon (or sellout) at the Extension office, 980 N. Postville Drive in Lincoln, on the northwest corner of the fairgrounds. The Master Gardener group will offer perennials, annuals and houseplants this year. Of course you can talk to a Master Gardener as well, if you can get one pulled aside!

Composting self-study course

There have been many requests for composting information over the winter. In response, we will be offering the Home Study Composting Course. There are six sessions total. To participate, just send us your name and address with a check for $5 to cover the postage cost. We will send you two lessons per week for three weeks. At that time you should be able to construct your own compost bin and make it work properly.

If you would like to see a large-scale compost system in action, you may visit one at the west end of the Extension office building (located on the fairgrounds side of the fence) or at Jefferson School's garden in Lincoln.

Field operations

With a few days of drier soil conditions, some field work has been occurring in Logan County. Most of the field work has been fertilizer application, leveling off ground and some limited spraying. Of course thoughts have popped up about planting corn, but what are the advantages and the disadvantages?

The primary advantage is getting corn planting completed by the recommended date so that there isn't a penalty for late planting. There is also a penalty for early planting, but it isn't as great as planting on the late side. April 10 planting dates carry about a 6 percent yield reduction. Optimal planting time is April 25-30, with very slight reductions in potential yield for planting April 20-May 4. Optimal plant populations are between 30,000 and 32,500.

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There are some other factors to consider when planting early: Herbicides and insecticides are probably not going to stay active as long as we think they are; seed in the ground takes longer to germinate and is exposed to more secondary insect damage; stands may emerge more unevenly; and the risk for replant goes up.

The major advantage to early planting is wrapping things up in a timely fashion. This has to be weighed against the other factors.

Extension Week

The West Central Region has designated next week as Extension Week. It is a time for us to be grateful for many things that have happened through the years and continue to happen with the great support that is provided in our community.

Many of University of Illinois Extension's programs aren't always associated with Extension. Some of those programs are 4-H, the Family Nutrition Program, Master Gardeners, and of course agriculture and horticulture.

Since the official beginning of Extension, with the Federal Smith-Lever Act in 1914, and the beginnings of Extension in Logan County in 1918, the University of Illinois Extension system has continued to bring research-based information to the local people. Your continued support throughout the year has made it all possible.

To highlight the week, I thought it might be good to have a little contest. The office will provide awards to at least 10 individuals who send in a list of "Farm Advisers" and "Home Advisers" for Logan County since the Extension started.

[John Fulton]

Youth to salute 4-H at the state Capitol

[APRIL 7, 2003]  SPRINGFIELD -- More than 2,500 Illinois 4-H youth and family members will participate in the seventh annual 4-H Legislative Connection at the state Capitol on April 15. During the event, 4-H youth will meet their state lawmakers and learn more about the legislative process.

Throughout the first floor of the Capitol, 4-H exhibits will be on display. The "Best of the Best" 4-H exhibition will feature nearly 800 Superior Award-winning exhibits from last summer's Illinois State Fair.

Educational workshops and tours are also included in the day's activities.

The Illinois 4-H Club Presidents Invitational Conference will run in conjunction with Legislative Connection.

An action-packed rally in the Capitol rotunda and a special luncheon program will celebrate achievements of more than 400,000 Illinois 4-H members and leaders.

The 4-H Legislative Connection is a nationally recognized program, cited twice by the USDA for national program of excellence. It has been replicated in 12 states.

Nationally, 4-H is the largest out-of-school educational program for youth and is part of U of I Extension programs.

[4-H news release provided by Amy Hyde of the University of Illinois Extension in Logan County]

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