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 The weather pattern that
prevented planting entirely in many places, especially to the east
of Central Illinois, and delayed it significantly in other areas in
2019 began with significant frost in the ground until late spring.
Although soil moisture was appropriate in areas, temperatures were
too cool to allow for early planting. Meteorological winter, which
ends at midnight on February 28th, brought cold and wet to Logan
County.
There was little wind and little warmth, and conditions didn't allow
for any field drying. The ground moisture stayed above the 90th
percentile for the entire spring season going into summer. Rainfall
started out average in March, and then the faucets turned on in
April, May and June and didn't turn off until July the Fourth
weekend. And when the rain stopped, it was a dead stop, resulting in
drought conditions that continued well into October. The result of
those heavy rains was almost disastrous, but most fields got planted
late and most yields were surprisingly good.
Former Illinois State Climatologist Jim Angel said that weather
conditions here in Central Illinois have changed. We have more 100
year rains than ever before, and this is updating the 500 year
rainfall tables. The 30 year climate study will be finished in 2021
and will tell the story of whether rainfall statistics have changed
significantly.
Miller said that we are now in a new pattern, and there has been a
climate shift here in the Midwest. The jet stream has moved, and we
are now getting more moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico, resulting
in heavier, more frequent rainfall amounts. This has created a
"feeder system" in which wet conditions continuously feed already
moisture-heavy clouds and this results in serial thunderstorms.
Climactically, temperatures have remained consistent over the last
120 years but rainfall has greatly increased in frequency and
amounts.
After last year, weather fear is a real and serious thing for
farmers. The equipment was all prepared, the seed bought and
delivered, but the weather last year prevented planting, and the
date got later and later and later. Some farmers had to choose
Prevent planting. Some sign of normal weather and stable climate
this year would be a welcome and comforting thing for farmers and
citizens alike. NWS Meteorologist and Hydrologist Chris Miller says
2020 will not be a repeat of 2019!
This year coming out of winter soil moisture is still in that 90th
percentile. The ground is moist and even muddy in areas, and water
can be found less than a foot under the surface in many areas. Soil
moisture amounts across the whole U.S. look above normal: sump pumps
are running and farm tiles are flowing and water is moving off into
streams and creeks. Central Illinois had a very mild winter with
above normal temperatures, and we are currently having above average
temperatures.
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It is forecasted that we are
still going to get our share of rainfall here in 2020. Current
precipitation is about 1.2 times the average, but the pattern of
precipitation and storms has shifted to the south this year, and the
heavy rainfall and storm pattern has moved into Kentucky and
Tennessee. The difference this year is that warm temperatures and
significant wind is also doing its work to dry off the fields. This
is not the same pattern as 2019.
Soil frost never penetrated deep into the soil this past winter, and
so moisture is able to soak in and permeate to greater depths
earlier than usual. Since we had such a mild winter and little
freezing of the soil, it is thought that this might be a significant
year for insects which normally would get killed by advancing frost.
It continues to be the recommendation for Logan County farmers to
invest in tiling fields. The drawbacks: More water is being
channeled to creeks and streams coming up faster, causing heavier
flooding along streams and rivers in low lying areas; and soil
moisture during fall droughts is lower in tiled fields. But these
conditions are preferable to the ponding effects that cause
replanting and crop loss.
So, Miller recapped, saying the heavy rains that were headed
directly at us in 2019 have shifted to the south, and we should have
more near normal rainfall. Warmer temperatures and winds will dry
fields this year, and unless Mother Nature sends us a last minute
curve ball, conditions look favorable for a much better planting
season and crop year in this 2020 season.
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