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It is hard to believe that maximum
yield potential in corn has been set, but ear size has already been
established by plants. This becomes a maximum, which probably won't
be realized come fall. Additional loss of kernels can occur from
many factors, such as pollination, insect problems, heat and lack of
moisture.
Soybeans should just begin flowering in
the next week. The bean plants hardly seem big enough to begin
flowering, but the plants flower based on the length of night rather
than size. Blooming can begin once the plants begin putting on their
trifoliate leaves. With the indeterminate varieties of soybeans we
are growing, they will then bloom throughout most of the summer.
Crop problems have been relatively
minor on the whole this year. Sure there have been some problems,
but they haven't been widespread. Probably the biggest trouble has
been weather-related, such as tornadoes through the north central
portions of the county and floodwaters in the southeast sections. We
have also had some limited problems from insects such as white
grubs, wireworms and cutworms.
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this article]
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Problems could occur in the near future
from insects such as Japanese beetles, corn rootworm beetles and
other insects that could clip silks. Treatment for these types of
insects is warranted to protect pollination. This assumes that
pollination is not complete and silk clipping is occurring. Most of
the synthetic pyrethroids are labeled. It will be very
 interesting
to see if the Japanese beetle area continues to expand this year
from the southeast corner of Logan County.
Field
crop scouting workshop
The next
workshop in the field scouting series is scheduled for this
Wednesday, June 25, from 9-11 a.m. at Dave Opperman's farm. The
educator speaking will be George Czapar. Please feel free to contact
the
office if you have questions; otherwise you may just show up.
Might be a good idea to bring your own lawn chair!
[John
Fulton]
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The convention agenda was
filled with luncheons, main sessions, a dance and elections.
On the newly elected 2003-3004
Illinois FFA officer team are Ryan Robinson, Section 19, president;
Kenan Peters, Section 8, vice president; Rachel Baum, Section 16,
reporter; Bruce Frank, Section 14, secretary; and Brian Dallam,
Section 2, treasurer.
Members of the FFA, including
students from Section 14, were recognized for their outstanding
achievements throughout the year. Bruce Frank and Kayleigh Paulsmyer
received awards for winning state in their SAE projects. Mathew
Dediert was named Star in Agribusiness, and Wade Strempstfer was
named Star Farmer. Ten Section 14 FFA members received their state
FFA degree. Cassandra Fritzsche and Kyle Attebery, both of Athens,
were honored among the top five individuals in the Growmark essay
contest. Also, many Section 14 members played in the band and
chorus.
For
more information, please visit
www.illinoisffa.org
and www.ffa.org.
[Katie
Thornley, Section 14 reporter] |
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"Two general alternative approaches
might be considered," said Darrel Good. "One is the purchase of put
options in order to protect the current price level and partially
benefit from higher prices should they occur. If higher prices do
develop, producers would then have to decide when to price the crop.
"A second approach is to spread sales
of a portion of the expected crop during the summer growing season
in order to capture the average price."
Good's comments came as he reviewed the
outlook for corn prices in the growing season and beyond.
"It is generally accepted that the
development of the U.S. corn crop is the most important price factor
at this time of year," he said. "That seems to be the case again
this year, with recent price volatility at least partially explained
by changing weather conditions, weather forecasts and crop condition
ratings."
As of June 8, the USDA reported 91
percent of the U.S. corn crop planted, compared with 88 percent last
year and the five-year average progress of 94 percent. The slowest
progress, on a statewide basis, was in Pennsylvania, and progress
was slower than average in Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan and
Wisconsin. As of June 8, 69 percent of the crop was rated in good or
excellent condition, and only 6 percent of the crop was rated in
poor or very poor condition. The ratings of a year ago were 59
percent good or excellent and 9 percent poor or very poor.
"Recent precipitation along with higher
temperatures should result in continued improvement of crop
conditions," said Good. "The short-term precipitation and
temperature forecasts are also generally favorable for crop
development.
"Without widespread concerns about crop
progress, corn prices will have a tendency to drift lower, unless
there are other positive price factors."
In the near term, the market will
examine the USDA acreage and grain stocks reports to be released on
June 30 to see if there are any surprises relative to planted
acreage or June 1 inventories. Based on known use to date and USDA
projections for the year, June 1 corn inventories should be near
three billion bushels, well below the 3.6 billion bushels of a year
ago.
"The relative strength of cash corn
prices in recent weeks in the face of a slow export pace gives the
impression that corn stocks are tighter than the calculations
suggest," said Good. "Perhaps the strong basis just reflects
reluctance of producers to make large sales of old crop corn. The
June 30 grain stocks report should provide some answers."
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Longer term, corn prices will be
influenced by developments in Chinese corn production and the
magnitude of Chinese corn exports, Good noted. Even with
modest-sized crops, China has been an aggressive exporter of corn
for the past two seasons. In 2001-02, the Chinese corn crop was
estimated at 4.49 billon bushels, and marketing year exports totaled
340 million bushels. The 2002 crop is estimated at 4.775 billion
bushels, and marketing year exports are projected at 530 million
bushels.
For the 2003 crop year, the USDA
estimates Chinese production potential at only 4.645 billion
bushels, down about 160 million bushels from the May estimate.
Chinese corn exports during the 2003-04 marketing year are projected
at 315 million bushels. The 215-million-bushel expected decline in
Chinese exports is the main reason the USDA is projecting a
250-million-bushel increase in U.S. corn exports during the 2003-04
marketing year.
"Most of that increase would likely be
in shipments to South Korea," said Good. "If current unfavorable
weather conditions result in an even smaller Chinese corn crop, U.S.
export prospects might be enhanced further."
Beyond the 2003-04 marketing year,
Chinese production and trade policy will continue to be important.
It appears that China will attempt to expand soybean production, at
the expense of corn production, to help meet its growing appetite
for soybean meal and oil. Smaller corn crops and the elimination of
export subsidies could result in further declines in Chinese corn
exports over the next few years. Some analysts even expect China to
become a modest net importer of corn in the near future.
"For now, it appears that corn prices
will continue in a choppy but generally sideways pattern," said
Good. "December 2003 corn futures have traded in a range nearly 20
cents since early May, but prices have stayed within the trading
range established since September 2002. The high in September was
$2.60 -- nine cents below the contract high -- and the contract low
established in March 2003 was $2.305.
"If crop
conditions remain favorable, the contract low would likely be
challenged, particularly if speculative traders give up the long
side of the market. It is a little early, however, to conclude that
the 2003 crop is out of danger."
[University
of Illinois news release]
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